England, France, Benelux, Germany without hot summer?! ECMWF 6-week forecast until 16. August 2021




It´s 1. July 2021 and we should look at ECMWF 6-week (42-day) outlook of temperature anomalies until 16. August 2021.

While in previous various long-term forecasts for Summer holidays 2021 it appeared for hot weather across all Europe, excluding only westernmost shores of the continent, currently has forecast changed into a colder variant with colder July and the 1st half of August in many parts of western Europe, including England, France, Benelux, and Germany!

England, France, Benelux, and Germany, therefore, should stay without extreme, deadly, or anomalous heatwave in the next 6 weeks, which strongly reminds Mkweather Summer 2021 forecasts, with cold NW sector of Europe /https://mkweather.com/summer-2021-forecast-for-europe-hot-and-dry-pattern-as-leading-heatwaves-drought/; https://mkweather.com/first-forecast-for-summer-2021-in-europe-la-nina-and-nao-hot-summer-is-probable//.

Meanwhile, parts of southern and eastern Europe should expect really hot times according to this forecast, including a traditional hot sector of heatwaves from Central Mediterranean, above western Balkan and SE Central Europe, with very hot Scandinavia and Central Asia with neighboring large parts of Russia.

Although Germany, France, and Benelux, such as Denmark, in June 2021 hit relatively strong heatwaves, with maximum temperatures in Germany up to +36,9°C, the UK for the first tropical day of the year is still waiting.

Forecast for the next 6 weeks however won´t look so extreme heatwaves in London, Paris, or Berlin, such as in June 2021, therefore it is a question: Should be a peak od Summer 2021 already regionally measured over parts of western and northwestern Europe in June 2021, or not?

Forecasts for the 3rd heatwave won´t expect extreme heatwaves above this sector, too, but the newest outputs of GFS see a potential of the 4th heatwave after 16. July 2021, which should hit W/NW Europe, too, therefore it will be interesting to watch the next evolution, yet /https://mkweather.com/after-the-3rd-european-heatwave-will-come-4th-heatwave-spain-and-turkey-48c-italy-45c-balkan-hungary-40c-central-europe-southern-france-and-eastern-europe-30-38c-scandinavia-32c-france-later-43c-briti//.

Temperature anomalies per weeks between 5. July and 16. August 2021:

Source: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts

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