2022-2023 forecast: Chances for El-Nino?

Only in the last days we published continental forecasts for Autumn (in Southern Hemisphere Spring) 2021 /https://mkweather.com/autumn-2021-forecast-for-europe-mostly-dry-and-frosty-autumn-be-prepared-for-early-severe-frosts/https://mkweather.com/autumn-2021-forecast-for-north-america-long-indian-summer-and-weaker-hurricane-season-such-as-expected/https://mkweather.com/autumn-2021-forecast-for-asia-strong-monsoon-for-s-se-e-asia-hot-and-dry-in-the-middle-east-late-siberian-cold-blasts-in-w-siberia-and-snow-calamities-in-e-siberia/https://mkweather.com/spring-autumn-forecast-for-africa-mostly-hot-and-dry-parts-of-sahel-equatorial-africa-stormy-and-south-africa-stormy-and-cold/https://mkweather.com/spring-2021-forecast-for-australia-and-oceania-under-la-nina-rules-cold-and-stormy-australia-warm-new-zealand-and-various-patterns-in-oceania/https://mkweather.com/spring-2021-forecast-for-south-america-floods-and-drought-in-many-regions// and we looked at Winter 2021/2022 – The first reliable outlook /https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-the-first-reliable-estimates-extreme-cold-blasts-from-canada-and-western-siberia-snow-in-western-europe-and-eastern-asia-la-nina-qbo-to-qbo-shift-sufficient-nao-ao//.

But what will be the next?

In the first half of 2022, similarly, such as in almost all years 2020 and 2021, La Nina will be still affecting all Earth, but in Summer 2022 should arrive a strong long-term change!

El-Nino should arrive already in the second half of the year 2022 according to ECMWF estimates and it´s very probable, that it will continue in all year 2023, maybe 2024 or 2025, too.

El-Nino is in the World linked predominantly with hot and dry conditions, severe droughts or wildfires should appear. In some regions, however, is the situation opposite.

Upcoming El-Nino in Summer 2022 and Autumn 2022, such as during all year 2023 should bring more favorable conditions in agriculture for western and central Europe (Agriculture stress index maps below), but very bad conditions to eastern Europe and central Asia (fertile steppes, grain cultivation) in the second half of a season 2022 and in 2023, in contrary with the years 2020, 2021 and the first half of 2022.

Hurricane season at the end of Summer 2022 and during Autumn 2022 should be weaker, which means fewer threats of severe floods for southern and eastern states of the USA, the Caribbean, and Mexico.

The upcoming El-Nino phase should make problems with drought mainly in the grain and corn belt in the USA in the second half of the season in 2022 and in 2023, while the Agriculture stress index in the southern USA should be more favorable, contrary to the years 2020, 2021 and the first half of 2022.

During 2020,2021 and the first half of 2022, the Agricultural stress index, thanks to many precipitations is good for SE Asia, but bad for China, while the second half of the year 2022 and year 2023 should bring bad agriculture conditions for SE Asia and better conditions for parts of China thanks to El-Nino. In India, both extremes, La Nina and El-Nino, are over continental parts unfavorable (neutral Summer 2022 should be good).

While El-Nino means better Agriculture stress index for southern Brazil and worse for Argentina, eastern Brazil, and Colombia/Venezuela, La-Nina is quite reversely, with better conditions in eastern Brazil and worse in many other regions.

La-Nina in Australia has a more favorable Agriculture stress index (but spider season and mice plague) than El-Nino, El-nino is bringing drought and severe wildfires.

El-Nino has a much worse Agriculture stress index for Africa, than La-Nina, therefore,  the years 2020, 2021, and the first half of 2022 are / will be more happy here, such as the second half of 2022 and year 2023.

Overall, warm global years should come back and La Nina already won´t be cooling parts of the Earth. Gradually, maybe Godzilla El-Nino should appear.

Illustration photo – NINO 3.4 SST anomaly plume until October 2022 /ECMWF
Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/?facets=%7B%22Product%20type%22%3A%5B%5D%2C%22Parameters%22%3A%5B%5D%2C%22Range%22%3A%5B%22Long%20%28Months%29%22%5D%2C%22Type%22%3A%5B%22Forecasts%22%5D%7D

Spearman correlation rank of Agriculture stress index with index SOI (left for El-Nino, right for La-Nina) /FAO:

FAO, 2014. Understanding the drought impact of El Niño on the global agricultural areas: An assessment using FAO’s Agricultural Stress Index (ASI) – Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome 2014 < http://www.fao.org/3/ai4251e.pdf>

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Author: marekkucera
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