Already in the last Mkweather articles, we were informed about an expected Arctic / Siberian winter in European regions /https://mkweather.com/a-peak-of-winter-in-the-british-islands-between-17-25-january-2022-up-to-15c-possible/; https://mkweather.com/a-peak-of-winter-in-the-british-islands-between-17-25-january-2022-up-to-15c-possible/; https://mkweather.com/life-threatening-40c-frosts-for-scandinavia-between-15-25-january-2022/; https://mkweather.com/spain-portugal-and-nw-africa-with-a-possible-2-week-lasting-peak-of-winter-2021-2022-severe-frosts-and-snowfall/; https://mkweather.com/france-and-benelux-with-returning-frosts-and-snowfall-in-alpine-valleys-below-1000-masl-below-20c-possible-ardennes-around-12c// and now we are continuing in the forecast, for Italy and Balkan (Eastern Europe, the Baltic region and Turkey are remaining).
The last run of GFS, from 06Z, is really drastic, with severe coldwave in Italy and Balkan, with a peak between 19.-27. January 2022.
According to these, new, outputs, -30°C should be possible in valleys and basins in the Carpathians and Dinaric Mountains, similarly such as in the Alps and -20°C in valleys in Apennines below 1000 MASL!
Yes, metropolitan cities will be warmer, mostly -5/-15°C, rarely below -20°C, in the most southern areas along the coasts only with weaker frosts or ground frosts, but outputs are really extreme, which means a possible regional snowfall in lowlands and coastal areas (not only continental parts).
Mainly in parts of Balkan, the Alps, and the Apennines, blizzard conditions are possible.
Frosts and snow should cause health-related problems, harder conditions for travelling, or power outages and uprooted trees in mountainous regions due to snowfall.
Above Balkan, extremely cold air masses with a temperature in 850 hPa in intervals of -15/-20°C, above Italy -10/-15°C are predicted, which should mean e.g. snowfall for the eastern Italian coast.
After the coldest time of the year, NAO+ with early-spring conditions is forecasted in February 2022 and March 2022, with gradual summer (above +25°C), maybe later tropical (above +30°C) days, in southern parts of the region /https://mkweather.com/ecmwf-6-week-forecast-for-europe-until-21-february-2022/; https://mkweather.com/early-spring-in-february-2022-is-confirming-strong-nao-is-predicted//.
Colder weather should return in April 2022 /https://mkweather.com/spring-2022-forecast-for-europe-early-dry-late-stormy-very-warm//.
Illustration maps: wxcharts.com, wetterzentrale.de
Expected snowfall. Source: tropicaltidbits.com 11.1.2022 06Z