Already in the last Mkweather articles, we were informed about an expected Arctic / Siberian winter in European regions /https://mkweather.com/a-peak-of-winter-in-the-british-islands-between-17-25-january-2022-up-to-15c-possible/; https://mkweather.com/a-peak-of-winter-in-the-british-islands-between-17-25-january-2022-up-to-15c-possible/; https://mkweather.com/life-threatening-40c-frosts-for-scandinavia-between-15-25-january-2022/; https://mkweather.com/spain-portugal-and-nw-africa-with-a-possible-2-week-lasting-peak-of-winter-2021-2022-severe-frosts-and-snowfall/; https://mkweather.com/france-and-benelux-with-returning-frosts-and-snowfall-in-alpine-valleys-below-1000-masl-below-20c-possible-ardennes-around-12c/; https://mkweather.com/drastic-gfs-run-with-a-hard-siberian-blast-for-italy-and-balkan-30c-in-balkan-and-the-alps-valleys-20c-for-the-apennines// and now we look at Eastern Europe and Baltic region.
Already on 11. January, morning, temperatures reached very low values in northern parts of Baltic countries – in Narva, Estonia, -22,8°C and in Ainazi, Latvia, -20,4°C was measured, so far (the next 2 nights should be even colder, in Belarus up to -28°C).
Then, a shorter warmer period will come, but then, a possible peak of Winter 2021/2022 is predicted for the period 20.-27. January 2022, with severe frosts across all (Eastern) Europe.
Minimum temperatures should end somewhere in the interval -25/-30°C for more days in the coldest parts of Ukraine, Belarus, or the Baltic states.
Snowfall 10-40 cm approximately across 70-80% of the region is forecast.
Air masses in 850 hPa with temperatures -15/-20°C, rarely below -20°C are predicted, which on the backside of the Siberian anticyclone and good conditions (snow cover, very dry air, calm winds, clear nights) should mean really life-threatening winter frosts.
It appears that coldwave should come and persist above the region a little later such as in western or central Europe, therefore the last days of severe winter should be the last January 2022 days.
However, after the coldest time of the year, NAO+ with early-spring conditions is forecast in February 2022 and March 2022, with gradual temperatures above +15°C, later +20°C and maybe in Odesa region °rare summer days above +25°C /https://mkweather.com/ecmwf-6-week-forecast-for-europe-until-21-february-2022/; https://mkweather.com/early-spring-in-february-2022-is-confirming-strong-nao-is-predicted//.
Colder weather should return in April 2022 /https://mkweather.com/spring-2022-forecast-for-europe-early-dry-late-stormy-very-warm//.
Illustration picture: wetterzentrale.de