Extended GFS ensemble forecast for European region until 30. November 2021: Arctic winter will come already next week!




In previous articles, we were informed about expected extreme early-season coldwaves in Europe through GFS (main run) forecasts, NAO index prediction, and 42-day Gismeteo forecast /https://mkweather.com/arctic-winter-in-europe-already-betwen-22-27-november-central-europe-france-spain-and-the-uk-20c-scandinavia-30c/; https://mkweather.com/the-end-of-november-should-bring-a-very-low-nao-index-greenlandic-arctic-and-siberian-winter-should-come-very-early-peaks-between-20-11-20-12-2021/; https://mkweather.com/winter-should-be-strengthening-until-new-year-2022-wider-european-region-estimates//.

The forecast is very similar to the last GFS ensemble forecast from 30. October 2021 /https://mkweather.com/extreme-coldwaves-in-continental-europe-confirmed-ensembles-cold-weather-should-be-lasting-up-to-45-days-with-a-peak-around-20-november-10-december-2021-mkweather-estimates//, with a gradual cooling trend, with some differences mainly in the timing of arrival of extreme coldwaves and their intensity.

Although extreme winter should arrive a little later than was forecasted, it should be even stronger than it appeared in outputs before 12 days – in all continental Europe, France, or even maybe the UK or Spain, -20°C will be possible (very rarely -25°C in Central Europe in the case of the coldest variants), while in Scandinavia, extreme frosts approximately in interval -30/-35°C for the coldest place are very probable.

From ensembles, we can extract 2 cold periods – the first, very short cooldown around 18. November (already next weekend! – in 7 days) in Stockholm or Prague, which will bring the first dose of Arctic air and then after 22. November practically until the end of the month or maybe until Christmas 2021 (links above), with anomalously long and strong forecasted coldwaves, with a possible the first, premature, peak of Winter 2021/2022.

2 shorter warm spells will appear around 16. and 20. November 2021, yet – it should be the last occasion for the last works in gardens or for meteosensitive people, for long-lasting outdoor activities.

Such as was mentioned in previous Mkweather articles (visit our homepage), very cold conditions should persist minimally until Christmas, or probably, until New Year 2022 when an absolute peak of Winter 2021/2022 is still probable (see our Winter 2021/2022 forecasts: /https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-for-europe-early-extreme-arctic-and-siberian-blasts-and-blizzards-late-dry-and-very-warm-conditions/https://mkweather.com/russian-meteorologists-expect-extreme-winter-around-december-january-2021-22/https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-for-northern-hemisphere-an-awakening-solar-activity-la-nina-neutral-nao-ao-wet-mjo-and-iod-to-drier-mjo-and-iod-qbo-ne-pacific-warm-blob-aao//.

This, the second and possibly several weeks lasting hard coldwave should arrive into Europe already in approximately 10 days and above the Mediterranean, North Africa, and the Middle East until the end of November 2021, therefore will be prepared and stay informed with Mkweather.

Illustration photo: GFS ENS for Stockholm, from 12. November 2021 /wetterzentrale.de

Source: wetterzentrale.de

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Author: marekkucera
Writer about weather since 2007. The goal of this project is to inform a wide audience about extremes of weather, atmospheric circulation, and climate change around the world. If you like our work, you can support us on Patreon or donate.