Summer and Winter 2022 forecast for Africa: Hot Sahara, stormy Sahel, colder and snowy South Africa, and hot and dry region between Saher and SAR
Summer 2022 in Northern Hemisphere and Winter 2022 in Southern Hemisphere is here already in 4 months and we are bringing the first continental updates of predicted weather patterns for Europe (Summer 2022), North America (Summer 2022), Asia (Summer 2022), Africa (Winter+Summer 2022), Australia (Winter 2022), South America (Winter 2022), and Antarctica (Winter 2022).
This article will look at the forecast of Summer and Winter 2022 conditions in Africa.
A few main factors will be affecting conditions during an upcoming Summer and Winter 2022:
1. Weakening La Nina: During JJA (June-July-August) 2022, a shift from La Nina to El Nino will be ongoing (Autumn in Southern Hemisphere (MAM) will be La Nina, yet, but Spring (SON) probably El Nino already). The previous 2 La Nina years should be associated with accumulated colder Earth conditions. La Nina is similarly, such as in the rest of the world more fertile /https://mkweather.com/el-nino-is-coming-autumn-2022-a-big-changes-in-circulation-patterns-worldwide//, but additional favorable teleconnections are needed, e.g. IOD+, which won´t be a case of the mentioned season, which together with the weakening La Nina should mean more drought, wildfires and heatwaves southward from the Sahel and northward from South Africa.
2. Shift of season of rain northward: During the summer season in Northern Hemisphere, ITCZ is shifted northward, above the Sahel and subequatorial climate zone, while in winter, stormy patterns are shifted southward from the equator. Overall, a strong season of rains above the Sahel region is predicted, with possible contributions of favorable La Nina and MJO conditions and regional circulation patterns. It should mean the next summer with deadly floods and landslides, in Western Sahel even with neutral temperature anomaly thanks to predicted extremely stormy pattern.
3. Negative IOD: Correlates with NAO- / AO-. Negative IOD means a shift of cyclones above the Indian Ocean to SE Asia, while the wider Eastern Africa region should be very dry. It´s a case of the following summer/winter (JJA) season, with a possible drought, heatwaves, and wildfires in large parts of Africa between Sahel and SAR, including East Africa. In winter (DJF) it would mean weaker Indian Cyclone season, too.
4. A shift of Hadley Cell southward and northward: An expansion of high pressure in equatorial and tropical latitudes should be linked with hot and dry anticyclonic anomalies above central and south-central parts of the continent (Global pressure anomalies map in materials) and too above Saharan /North-African/ countries.
5. Mostly NAO- and AO-: After the year 2000, approximately 2/3 of winters were NAO+, while 2/3 summers NAO-. Peaks of NAO- in summer should mean accumulation of very hot air in NW Africa, thanks to low-situated cyclones with cold fronts moving past southern trajectories above Morocco, Iberia, and Italy, which is bringing severe heatwaves not only above western Sahara but too above the Middle East, Central Asia, the Mediterranean, and European mid-latitudes.
6. AAO+: Higher probability of AAO+ phase should mean more southern situated stormtrack in South Africa, but shorter AAO- phases should be thanks to anomalously cold air with origin in Antarctic masses very strong in their peaks. Despite it, a relatively colder and stormier / neutral winter in SAR is possible.
7. Cold Antarctica: Last winter season the coldest in the South Pole in history /https://mkweather.com/the-south-pole-with-the-coldest-winter-in-history-average-temperature-april-september-half-year-only-610c//. Near shorter AAO- phases, therefore, less frequent, but possible severe Antarctic blasts in South-African countries.
8. Extremely hot western Sahara: In the last years traditional pattern, linked with the shift of Hadley Cell or summer NAO- signals. There is a big stock of hot air for Europe, the Middle East, and Central Asia (heatwaves will be shifting from Sahara northeastward).
9. Stronger start of Atlantic Hurricane season: Despite weakening La Nina, thanks to AMO+, is expected the next above-average Hurricane season 2022. It should mean more tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes at the end of Summer 2022 including a possible impact to NW African shores – especially in the second half of the summer. Autumn 2022 should be thanks to the upcoming El Nino relatively calmer in comparison with previous autumns.
10. AMO+: Warmer seas near North America with effect on stronger hurricane season and some / not excluded ex-tropical threats (including remnants of cold fronts) in late summer possible in Canary Islands, Morocco, N Algeria and Tunisia region (including cold fronts linked with ex-tropical systems).
11. QBO in Westerly phase: Support for zonal airflow.
12. Awakening sun activity: should be linked with warmer global signals not only in Summer 2022 but in the next years.
13. SST: Warm SSTs around the northern and cold SSTs around the southern half of Africa (the second should be caused by La Nina).
Now, we should look at a forecast map for Summer and Winter 2022 for Africa and 5 main sectors, with similar regimes of weather:
A) HOT AND DRY (SAHARAN STATES, SUDAN, A REGION BETWEEN SAHEL AND SOUTH AFRICA INCLUDING EAST-SOUTHEAST AFRICA): IOD+ means hot and dry East Africa and fewer storms from the Indian Ocean in the region between the Sahel and South Africa. The weakening La Nina should support drier conditions, although La Nina is mostly fertile for Africa (in JJA is predicted only weak La Nina). A shift of a season of rain and Hadley Cell should be stronger in a northward direction, with stronger drought in some equatorial regions, too. Severe drought, heatwaves, and wildfires, and unfortunately, famines and water supplies, will be possible. In the hottest parts, temperatures should reach up to +40°C, in the south during AAO- and episodic Antarctic blasts up to -10°C.
B) HOT AND STORMY (SAHEL, SOUTHERN WEST AFRICA, ETHIOPIA, SOMALIA, UGANDA): Stormy Sahel and W Africa should be a result of a combination of the stronger season of rains, Hadley Cell shift northward, and La Nina. Next season of rain with floods and landslides, but on the other hand, last years a trend mostly against severe Sahel drought. Some effects of IOD+ (and dry periods) in Somalia and Ethiopia possible, higher mentioned factors however more important. More fertile, but still regional humanitarian flood crisis possible. Temperatures up to +45°C in northern Sahels during Saharan heatwaves, near heavy rains in southern parts only +25°C, minimum temperatures up to +15°C.
C) VERY STORMY (WESTERN SAHEL): Similar circulation conditions as in the rest of Sahel, but even more stormy pattern, with possible widespread floods and landslides, humanitarian crisis. Cooling effect on temperatures – neutral temperature anomalies from long-term averages. Maximum temperatures mostly only up to +35°C in the stormiest regions, minimum temperatures up to +15°C. Heatwaves and drought limited, may be fertile, but counterproductive precipitation in agriculture, too.
D) COLD AND DRY (MAINLY SOUTHERN NAMIBIA): Anomaly mostly in southern Namibia – dry and cold, thanks to cold Benguela Current. Relatively good conditions for stronger winter frosts and anticyclonic winter weather, with fogs and frosts below -10°C in peaks. Above deserts and warm spells sometimes tropical days above +30°C. Possible problems with drought, water supplies. The coldest during AAO- phases with episodical Antarctic blasts, during strong AAO+ warmer.
E) COLD AND RELATIVELY SNOWY (SOUTH AFRICA): The next neutral or relatively cold season in a row in South Africa. Possibly linked with La Nina, colder SSTs in the region. Some weaker effects of IOD+ in northeastern SAR, during AAO+ warmer, but stronger episodical AAO- phases with possible unseasonably strong frosts up to -20°C. In northern parts during warm spells summer days above +25°C. Relatively enough snowfall, mainly in southern regions above 500 MASL. Relatively good winter conditions. Regional floods, in mountainous regions blizzards, possible.
Spring (Autumn) 2022 forecasts are available here: Europe /https://mkweather.com/spring-2022-forecast-for-europe-early-dry-late-stormy-very-warm//, North America /https://mkweather.com/spring-2022-forecast-for-north-america//, Asia /https://mkweather.com/spring-2022-forecast-for-asia//, Australia and Oceania /https://mkweather.com/autumn-2022-forecast-for-australia//, South America /https://mkweather.com/autumn-2022-forecast-for-south-america//, Africa /https://mkweather.com/spring-and-autumn-2022-forecast-for-africa-mostly-stormy-and-hot-south-colder//, and Antarctica /https://mkweather.com/autumn-2022-forecast-for-antarctica-snowy-with-severe-blizzards//.
Mkweather Summer and Winter 2022 forecast for Africa. Base map: https://mapchart.net/europe.html
NAOi. Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.tabl0e
AOi. Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table
AAOi. Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/monthly.aao.index.b79.current.ascii.table
PNAi. Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table