Summer 2022 in Northern Hemisphere and Winter 2022 in Southern Hemisphere is here already in 4 months and we are bringing the first continental updates of predicted weather patterns for Europe (Summer 2022), North America (Summer 2022), Asia (Summer 2022), Africa (Winter+Summer 2022), Australia (Winter 2022), South America (Winter 2022), and Antarctica (Winter 2022).
This article will look at the forecast of Winter 2022 conditions in Antarctica.
A few main factors will be affecting conditions during an upcoming Winter 2022:
1. Weakening La Nina: During JJA (June-July-August) 2022, a shift from La Nina to El Nino will be ongoing (Autumn in Southern Hemisphere (MAM) will be La Nina, yet, but Spring (SON) probably El Nino already). The previous 2 La Nina years should be associated with accumulated colder Earth conditions, including very cold parts of Antarctica. Weakening La Nina should mean little warmer conditions above Antarctica such as in the previous 2 winter seasons.
2. AAO+: Higher probability of AAO+ phase should mean more severe frosts for continental parts of Antarctica, but extreme winter conditions such as during Winter season 2021 aren´t expected, so far (mentioned below). AAO+ is causing a strong stormtrack above the Southern Ocean and therefore a possibility of creating large stocks of extremely cold air above the continent during longer AAO+ periods. During AAO-, Antarctica is warmer, and cold air masses are shifting above South America, South Africa, Australia, and New Zealand more often.
3. Possible cold regional conditions: Last winter season was the coldest in the South Pole in history /https://mkweather.com/the-south-pole-with-the-coldest-winter-in-history-average-temperature-april-september-half-year-only-610c//. Near possible long AAO+, a few very cold months or weeks during the winter season (April-September 2022) are possible (not all).
4. Negative IOD: Despite IOD+, with a lack of storm activity in the eastern Indian Ocean, very stormy parts of Antarctica near the Indian Ocean (Indian part of Southern Ocean) sector.
5. Still weak ozone layer: Correlates with more frequent AAO+ phases (SAM+ = positive phase of Southern Annular Mode) and should be linked with extremely cold periods above the continent.
6. Awakening sun activity: should be linked with warmer global signals not only in Summer 2022 but in the next years.
7. SSTs in the Southern Ocean: Relatively cold in Pacific parts, warm in Atlantic and Indian Ocean parts. However, around Antarctica, melting of fresh water and re-freezing of this water along shores, which mean higher albedo and contributions to cooling effects and increasing of an area of Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Now, we should look at a forecast map for Winter 2022 for Antarctica and 2 main sectors, with similar regimes of weather:
A) NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY WARM AND DRY (PACIFIC PARTS): With a contribution of colder Pacific SSTs probably drier season in Pacific parts of Antarctica with a possibility of extreme frosts. Vostok station on the border of this region. Probably better conditions for expeditions such as blizzard conditions. Effects of AAO+ and Ozone layer, such as La Nina probably the strongest in this region.
B) WARM AND SNOWY (ATLANTIC AND INDIAN PARTS): Warmer Atlantic and Indian Ocean waters should contribute to a stormy pattern above this large region. Mainly Atlantic SSTs very warm. It means more severe blizzards, with a possibility of higher temperatures, but often unfavorable conditions for expeditions. Antarctic Peninsula snowy, too. Effects of AAO+, Ozone Layer and La Nina probably a little weaker in this region such as in the Pacific sector.
Spring (Autumn) 2022 forecasts are available here: Europe /https://mkweather.com/spring-2022-forecast-for-europe-early-dry-late-stormy-very-warm//, North America /https://mkweather.com/spring-2022-forecast-for-north-america//, Asia /https://mkweather.com/spring-2022-forecast-for-asia//, Australia and Oceania /https://mkweather.com/autumn-2022-forecast-for-australia//, South America /https://mkweather.com/autumn-2022-forecast-for-south-america//, Africa /https://mkweather.com/spring-and-autumn-2022-forecast-for-africa-mostly-stormy-and-hot-south-colder//, and Antarctica /https://mkweather.com/autumn-2022-forecast-for-antarctica-snowy-with-severe-blizzards//.
Mkweather Winter 2022 forecast for Antarctica. Base map: https://sco.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Antarctica_blank.svg