Spring 2022 forecast for Asia: Mostly warm and stormy
Spring 2022 is slowly coming and we are bringing continental updates of predicted weather patterns for Europe /https://mkweather.com/spring-2022-forecast-for-europe-early-dry-late-stormy-very-warm//, North America /https://mkweather.com/spring-2022-forecast-for-north-america//, Asia, Africa (Spring + Autumn 2022), Australia (Autumn 2022), South America (Autumn 2022), and Antarctica (Autumn 2022).
In this article, we will look at the forecast of Spring 2022 conditions in Asia.
A few main teleconnection patterns will be affecting conditions during an upcoming Spring 2022:
1. Still very strong La Nina: should be associated with colder Earth conditions, but is usually linked with AO+ and NAO+, which is the case of the start of an upcoming Spring 2022 (Feburary and March 2022 strongly NAO+). Still will be associated with a strong early monsoon pattern across S/SE Asia – mainly in SE Asia except for parts of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapur, or Brunei, or parts of China. Thanks to positive IOD, a lot of rainfall will shift from Indonesia, Malaysia region, and Southern India above the Middle East, but some La Nina rainfall in southern SE Asia will be preserved. Fertile conditions in many parts of monsoon Asia.
2. Shift from NAO+/AO+ to neutral NAO/AO: While the start of Spring 2022 should bring strong NAO+ / AO+, in April or May should appear temporary neutral or even NAO- / AO- phases. NAO+ in March 2022 means very warm and dry southern half of Siberia and neighboring Central Asia and China. In N/E Siberia, and later other parts of the region and, Central Asia and China, near neutral or NAO-; April Arctic blasts and gradually strong storm season should appear mainly in the eastern half of Siberia, easternmost Mongolia and large parts of China. March 2022 blizzards are possible mainly in N/E Siberia thanks to NAO+. Western Disturbances in the Middle East and India are in March 2022 highly improbable, with some Arctic blasts in April 2022, with a very stormy pattern.
3. Very cold Arctic (in previous winter): At the start of Winter 2021/2022, very cold Arctic conditions were observed /https://mkweather.com/arctic-sea-ice-extent-is-the-2nd-highest-in-15-years// and anomalously cold conditions were persisting until New Year 2022 (in early January 2021 the 2nd highest Arctic Sea Ice Extent in since 2002!). A higher amount of Arctic Sea Ice will be linked with March 2022 NAO+ phases and when circulation will collapse in April 2022, the content of the Arctic air masses should temporarily flood lower latitudes, with late severe frosts and damages on the harvest.
4. QBO in Westerly phase: It should mean more zonal airflow, explained by NAO+ (strong zonal winds = strong Icelandic low, strong Azores high.
5. Shift to positive IOD: Positive IOD (IOD+) phase correlates with NAO+: A shift of cyclonic activity above the Indian Ocean from the Indonesia / Malaysia region and southern India above the Middle East and East Africa.
6. MJO: Wet phases MJO should be shifting from the eastern Indian Ocean to the western parts, partially following the IOD pattern.
7. Awakening sun activity: should be in contrast with a transition from La Nina to El Nino during the year 2022 and the year 2023. Overall, there are signals, that the last colder winters are associated with a weakening of solar cycles after 2000, especially during the last minimum before a few years.
8. SST: Warm seas in Asian regions should have contribution to weather regimes in mentioned regions. Above Pacific still La Nina pattern.
9. NE Pacific Warm Blob: Warm and high-pressure anomaly above NE Pacific associated with very warm conditions in East Asia and the Far East (western half of Canada and N/NW USA will be cold) – a lot of warm air on the backside of anomalously strong Hawaii high.
Now, we should look at a forecasted map for Spring 2022 for Asia and 8 main sectors, with similar regimes of weather:
A) COLD AND STORMY – NORTHERN INDIA, NEPAL, NORTHERN PAKISTAN (DARK BLUE): Mostly dry March 2022 thanks to NAO+ and lack of Western Disturbances, stormy April 2022 thanks to these ex-Mediterranean lows, and the arrival of monsoon in May 2022. In March 2022 possible drought, in April 2022 last frosts and snow in the mountains. Temperatures from -5°C in the first half of Spring 2022 in valleys and basins to +50°C in May before the arrival of the monsoon.
B) STORMY – SE ASIA /WITHOUT INDONESIA, MALAYSIA, SINGAPORE, BRUNEI, SE-MOST CHINA (LIGHT GREEN): La Nina will bring still enough storms, the region is farther from effects of IOD. Possible floods, landslides, but the good effect of precipitation for growing season. In April in the northern parts light coldwaves. Temperatures from 0°C in valleys in the north near early coldblasts, to above +40°C near dry periods in continental parts.
C) WARM AND STORMY – LARGE PARTS OF THE MIDDLE EAST, MYANMAR, CHINA, SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES AND WEST-PAPUA REGION (DARK GREEN): The Middle East stormy pattern as a result of IOD+ and partially Western disturbances around April 2022, thanks to the shift from NAO+ to neutral or light NAO- phase. Parts of SE Asia such a result of La Nina. Possibility of floods and landslides, in the Middle East, flash floods. Temperatures in northern parts during early cold blasts below 0°C, above deserts up to +50°C in late May 2022.
D) DRY – PARTS OF TIBET AND SULAWESI / CENTRAL BORNEO (YELLOW): Mostly dry pattern, in Tibet partially with assistance of NAO+ in March 2022, Himalayas barrier effect and air from warm and dry Central Asia. Parts of Indonesia locally drier than average thanks to IOD+. In Tibet in March strong frosts, in May heatwaves. In Indonesia possible stronger heatwaves up to +35°C.
E) WARM – W/N TURKEY, RED SEA COAST, CENTRAL CASPIAN SEA REGION, SW-MOST SIBERIA, MOST OF KOREAS, CENTRAL JAPAN, SOUTHERN INDIA, SRI LANKA (ORANGE): Mostly warm pattern with alternating periods of drought and storms. Various circulation patterns and temperature regimes. Southern India and Sri Lanka not very stormy thanks to IOD+. Parts of Western Asia with dry March and stormy April. Parts of East Asia very warm with a contribution of the NE Pacific Warm Blob anomaly.
F) WARM AND DRY – CENTRAL ASIA, SE-MOST CHINA, TAIWAN, S JAPAN, S SOUTH KOREA, W MONGOLIA (RED)– Early spring conditions with early heatwaves should surprise Central Asia in March 2022, before colder April 2022 with late frosts, in May 2022 however very hot and dry, with early heatwaves and drought. SE East Asia with hot and dry pattern thanks to NE Pacific Blob, March AO+. Central Asia in early March up to -30°C, in May up to +40°C, SE East Asia in March up to -10°C in northern regions and up to +40°C in May.
G) NEUTRAL: SOUTHERN TIBET, AFGHANISTAN, INDONESIA, MALAYSIA, SINGAPORE, BRUNEI (WHITE): Regions with neutral temperature and precipitation patterns, with mostly dry March 2022 and wetter April 2022. Rainfall in Indonesia and Malaysia region reduced by IOD+ and weaker MJO, possibly by a weakening of La Nina during the Spring 2022, too.
H) WARM AND STORMY / EARLY SNOWY: Thanks to March NAO+, a shift of blizzard conditions above N/E Siberia, maybe NE China, E Mongolia, N North Korea, N Japan near neutral fluctuations. Overall extremely warm. March should be drier in southern regions, April with late Siberian blasts and blizzards, May with severe storms and heatwaves (and the very early arrival of monsoon rains). The Arctic will be around April 2022 extremely cold – cold blasts around the middle of Spring 2022 should be regionally historic. Early March frosts up to -55°C in Yakutsk, May heatwaves up to +30°C.
Winter (Summer) 2021/2022 forecasts are available here: Europe /https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-for-europe-early-extreme-arctic-and-siberian-blasts-and-blizzards-late-dry-and-very-warm-conditions//, North America /https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-for-north-america-a-peak-of-winter-with-extreme-arctic-blasts-and-blizzards-in-february-2022//, Asia /https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-for-asia-early-extreme-arctic-and-siberian-blasts-and-blizzards-late-dry-and-warm-conditions//, Australia and Oceania /https://mkweather.com/summer-2021-2022-forecast-for-australia-and-oceania-stormy-colder-la-nina-pattern-above-the-continent//, South America /http://mkweather.com/summer-2021-2022-forecast-for-south-america-stormy-north-hot-and-dry-south-cold-and-dry-pacific-coast//, Africa /https://mkweather.com/winter-and-summer-2021-2022-forecast-for-africa//, and Antarctica /https://mkweather.com/summer-2021-2022-forecast-for-antarctica//.
Mkweather Spring 2022 forecast for Asia. Base map: https://mapchart.net/americas-detailed.html
NAOi. Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table
AOi. Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table
AAOi. Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/monthly.aao.index.b79.current.ascii.table
PNAi. Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table