Autumn 2022 forecast for Antarctica: Warm Antarctic Peninsula, but an inhospitable continent

Spring (in Southern Hemisphere Autumn) 2022 is slowly coming and we are bringing continental updates of predicted weather patterns for Europe /https://mkweather.com/spring-2022-forecast-for-europe-early-dry-late-stormy-very-warm//, North America /https://mkweather.com/spring-2022-forecast-for-north-america//, Asia /https://mkweather.com/spring-2022-forecast-for-asia//, Africa (Spring + Autumn 2022) /https://mkweather.com/spring-and-autumn-2022-forecast-for-africa-mostly-stormy-and-hot-south-colder//, Australia /https://mkweather.com/autumn-2022-forecast-for-australia//, South America /https://mkweather.com/autumn-2022-forecast-for-south-america//, and Antarctica.

In this article, we will look at the forecast of Autumn 2022 conditions in Antarctica.

A few main teleconnection patterns will be affecting conditions during an upcoming Autumn 2022:

1. Still very strong La Nina: should be associated with colder Earth conditions and cooling effect into Antarctica. El Nino is forecasted only since September / October / November 2022.

2. AAO+: Higher probability of AAO+ phase means that during clear nights should be extremely cold, although overall temperature anomaly should be thanks to blizzards positive. Stormtrack in the Southern Ocean will be very strong, with severe storms and cyclones and unfavorable weather.

3. Shift to positive IOD: Positive IOD (IOD+) phase correlates with NAO+: A shift of cyclonic activity above the Indian Ocean from eastern to western parts. Should affect neighboring parts of Antarctica by ex-tropical remnants of cyclones.

4. Awakening sun activity: should be in contrast with a transition from La Nina to El Nino during the year 2022 and the year 2023. Overall, there are signals, that the last colder winters in the Northern Hemisphere / colder last years globally are associated with a weakening of solar cycles after 2000, especially during the last Solar minimum before a few years.

5. SST: Cold SST anomalies (Sea Surface Temperature) near many parts of Antarctica will affect some sectors of the continent. Cold SSTs are linked with the albedo effect, caused by melting ice from the Antarctic ice sheet, which re-freezes above Southern Ocean seas and cooling all wider regions (opposite feedback than in the Arctic with an Arctic Amplification).

Now, we should look at a forecasted map for Autumn 2022 in Antarctica and 6 main sectors, with similar regimes of weather:

A) WARM AND SNOWY SECTOR – CENTRAL AND SE ANTARCTICA (PINK): Thanks to AAO+ during clear nights extremely cold (the South Pole in 2021 the 3rd coldest year in history), but with alternating with blizzards (positive precipitation anomaly). Bad for expeditions. Minimum temperatures from -60°C in March to -80°C in May.

B) WARM AND DRY SECTOR – ANTARCTIC PENINSULA, E SECTOR (DARK RED): Good conditions for expeditions, possibly linked with a hot and dry anomaly in southern South America, but still with stormtrack between regions. In March, maximum temperatures up to +15°C, in May, minimum temperatures up to -50°C above the continent.

C) DRY – SW SECTOR (YELLOW): Good conditions for severe cold blasts. Minimum temperatures from -40°C in March to -70°C in May above the continent.

D) SNOWY – S/SW SECTORS (LIGHT VIOLET): Good conditions for blizzards, worse for expeditions. Minimum temperatures from -40°C in March to -70°C in May above the continent.

E) COLD SNOWY – WEST-INDIAN OCEAN SECTOR (VIOLET): Probably and effect of cold SST anomaly above neighboring part of Southern Ocean and IOD+ with ex-tropical cyclones in Western Indian Ocean. Very bad for expeditions. Minimum temperatures from -50°C in March to -75°C in May above the continent.

F) COLD DRY – NE SECTOR, SW FROM ANTARCTIC PENINSULA (LIGHT BLUE): Good condition for severe frosts, near Antarctic Peninsula worse conditions for expeditions. Near cold SST anomaly. Minimum temperatures from -50°C in March to -80°C in May above the continent.

Winter (Summer) 2021/2022 forecasts are available here: Europe /https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-for-europe-early-extreme-arctic-and-siberian-blasts-and-blizzards-late-dry-and-very-warm-conditions//, North America /https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-for-north-america-a-peak-of-winter-with-extreme-arctic-blasts-and-blizzards-in-february-2022//, Asia /https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-for-asia-early-extreme-arctic-and-siberian-blasts-and-blizzards-late-dry-and-warm-conditions//, Australia and Oceania /https://mkweather.com/summer-2021-2022-forecast-for-australia-and-oceania-stormy-colder-la-nina-pattern-above-the-continent//, South America /http://mkweather.com/summer-2021-2022-forecast-for-south-america-stormy-north-hot-and-dry-south-cold-and-dry-pacific-coast//, Africa /https://mkweather.com/winter-and-summer-2021-2022-forecast-for-africa//, and Antarctica /https://mkweather.com/summer-2021-2022-forecast-for-antarctica//.