Winter 2022 in Southern Hemisphere is here already in 4 months and we are bringing the first continental updates of predicted weather patterns for Europe (Summer 2022), North America (Summer 2022), Asia (Summer 2022), Africa (Winter+Summer 2022), Australia (Winter 2022), South America (Winter 2022), and Antarctica (Winter 2022).
This article will look at the forecast of Winter 2022 conditions in Australia.
A few main factors will be affecting conditions during an upcoming Winter 2022:
1. Weakening La Nina: During Winter 2022, a shift from La Nina to El Nino will be ongoing (Autumn in Southern Hemisphere will be La Nina, yet, but Spring probably El Nino already). The previous 2 La Nina Years should be associated with accumulated colder Earth conditions. La Nina is in many parts of Australia more fertile as El Nino /https://mkweather.com/el-nino-is-coming-autumn-2022-a-big-changes-in-circulation-patterns-worldwide//, however, severe floods, landslides, and storms are possible. Winter heatwaves, drought, and wildfires in northern Australia should be limited thanks to ending La Nina, too. La Nina patterns above Oceania will be slowly weakening and already in the last months of the year 2022, El Nino patterns should appear (the next Cyclone season, 2022/2023 should be in Australia, New Zealand, and Vanuatu region already weaker).
2. AAO+: Higher probability of AAO+ phase should mean more southern situated stormtrack in southern Australia and New Zealand, with lesser or normal frequency of severe winterstorms, but Australia, including the most populated, SE region, will be still very stormy thanks to La Nina and IOD-. Shorter AAO- phases, however, should be thanks to anomalously cold air from Antarctica masses very strong in their peaks.
3. Negative IOD: Correlates stormy patterns above Australia – and brings very stormy pattern above SE Asia, too, while East Africa (Western Indian Ocean regions) is very dry. In Summer 2021/22 in Southern Hemisphere we were mostly in IOD-, too, Autumn 2022 should be neutral or shortly IOD+. Near returning IOD- in Winter 2022 should appear the higher risk of floods and landslides, such as severe storms with hail, gusting winds, or damaging lighting.
4. A shift of Hadley Cell southward (Southern Hemisphere): The shift of Hadley Cell southward should mean higher geopotential for northern parts of Australia and northern moderate zone in Oceania.
5. Cold Antarctica: Last winter season the coldest in the South Pole in history /https://mkweather.com/the-south-pole-with-the-coldest-winter-in-history-average-temperature-april-september-half-year-only-610c//. Near shorter AAO- phases, therefore, less frequent, but possible severe Antarctic Blobs in Australia and New Zealand.
6. Mostly NAO- and AO-: After the year 2000, approximately 2/3 of winters were NAO+, while 2/3 summers NAO-. Some effect to northern Oceania.
7. QBO in Westerly phase: Support for zonal airflow, despite possible NAO- / AO- conditions.
8. Stronger start of Pacific Hurricane season, weaker Typhoon season: Very strong and early Pacific Hurricane season is forecast, which should mean more hurricane threats for Hawaii and waters of NE Pacific. Typhoon season in Asia and neighboring Oceania should be however weaker than average.
9. Awakening sun activity: should be linked with warmer global signals not only in Summer 2022 but in the next years.
10. SST: mostly warm SSTs, very cold in equatorial Oceania and French Polynesia region thanks to La Nina, still.
Now, we should look at a forecast map for Winter 2022 for Australia and 5 main sectors, with similar regimes of weather:
A) WARM AND STORMY / SNOWY (NORTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF AUSTRALIA, TASMANIA, NEW ZEALAND, SOUTHERN PAPUA-NEW GUINEA, NEW CALEDONIA, VANUATU, MARSHALL ISLANDS, NORTHERN KIRIBATI): Australia: The last La Nina stormy season in a row. Storms enhanced by IOD- and favorable MJO conditions, too. Possible often floods, landslides, mice plague, or strong spider season. Less frequency of drought, wildfires, or heatwaves in the northern parts. In the Parth region and southern Western Australia during the peaks of winter (AAO-) possible snowfall and winterstorms. Possible temperatures in northern parts above +30°C, in southern near Antarctic blobs up to -10°C, in southern New Zealand up to -20°C. In Tasmania and Southern New Zealand higher probability of blizzards, Northern Island with a possibility of floods. Vanuatu and New Caledonia, such as parts of northern Oceania stormy, with floods, too.
B) STORMY (S-SE AUSTRALIA-GREEN): Relatively colder Southeast, with a higher probability of storms and winterstorms – floods, hail, damaging winds, blizzards. La Nina, IOD-, shorter AAO- phases as main factors. Possible mice plague and strong spider season, lesser dry periods, and not-so-strong warm spells such as during El Nino. Thanks to lower temperatures, relatively good winter conditions, especially in mountainous regions. Up to +25°C, in south up to +20°C during warm spells, and up to -15°C during Antarctic blobs. During AAO- shorter, but possible very strong peaks of winter.
C) COLD AND DRY (FRENCH POLYNESIA): Local cluster caused by La Nina in eastern Oceania. Drought, but colder weather as long-term average.
D) WARM (FIJI REGION): Weakening La Nina pattern, with not so stormy pattern in Fiji region. Good for vacations, alternating of stormy and dry periods.
E) WARM AND DRY (NORTHERN PAPUA – NEW GUINEA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, SAMOA REGION, SOUTHERN KIRIBATI, NW OCEANIA – DARK RED): Problems with drought, wildfires, in agriculture and water supplies. Still La Nina pattern, IOD- without a significant effect. A possible effect of weaker Typhoon season 2022.
Spring (Autumn) 2022 forecasts are available here: Europe /https://mkweather.com/spring-2022-forecast-for-europe-early-dry-late-stormy-very-warm//, North America /https://mkweather.com/spring-2022-forecast-for-north-america//, Asia /https://mkweather.com/spring-2022-forecast-for-asia//, Australia and Oceania /https://mkweather.com/autumn-2022-forecast-for-australia//, South America /https://mkweather.com/autumn-2022-forecast-for-south-america//, Africa /https://mkweather.com/spring-and-autumn-2022-forecast-for-africa-mostly-stormy-and-hot-south-colder//, and Antarctica /https://mkweather.com/autumn-2022-forecast-for-antarctica-snowy-with-severe-blizzards//.
Mkweather Winter 2022 forecast for Australia. Base map: https://mapchart.net/europe.html