Beast from the East for British Islands is still forecasted: Snow and a possibility of -15/-20°C frosts in Scotland!




In the last series of articles (our homepage), since late October 2021, we have been warning before an early arrival of winter conditions in Europe, which were forecasted to strengthen until the end of the month.

NAO index is forecasted to fall into values around -1 already in 10 days /https://mkweather.com/the-end-of-november-should-bring-a-very-low-nao-index-greenlandic-arctic-and-siberian-winter-should-come-very-early-peaks-between-20-11-20-12-2021//, with a result of extremely cold conditions across wider European region /https://mkweather.com/winter-should-be-strengthening-until-new-year-2022-wider-european-region-estimates// until Christmas 2021, or maybe even a New Year 2022.

These forecasts were supported by ensemble outputs (GFS model) /https://mkweather.com/extended-gfs-ensemble-forecast-for-european-region-until-30-november-2021-arctic-winter-will-come-already-next-week//.

Near very low AO index, winter-like patterns are already appearing in the USA, Siberia, China, or North Africa /https://mkweather.com/severe-snowstorms-in-midwest-during-thanksgiving-25-11-are-possible/; https://mkweather.com/delyankir-418c-dzalinda-408c-oymyakon-405c-if-these-frosts-had-struck-a-week-earlier-they-would-have-been-historic/; https://mkweather.com/northeastern-china-hit-the-strongest-blizzard-in-116-years-in-taiwan-and-japan-still-summer/; https://mkweather.com/the-first-snow-in-algeria-morocco-and-tunisia//.

The newest forecasts for the UK and Ireland count with a possibility of values up to -12°C for Scotland around 29. November 2021, which should mean a very rare potential for temperatures up to interval -15/-20°C in Scottish Highlands (lower situated basins and valleys).

These temperatures are deeply below November averages.

Severe frosts in the interval -10/-15°C are according to these the most extreme runs possible in northern England or Wales, Ireland should be warmer with the coldest night in interval -5/-10°C rarely.

T850 hPa should a few days earlier reach almost -10°C above parts of the UK.

Moreover, snow cover is forecasted for large parts of the UK and regionally for Ireland, too.

Air, which will flood Europe soon, will have origin in Greenland, where record -55,6°C was on 7. November measured – so extremely low temperatures have never appeared above Summit so early, so far /https://mkweather.com/summit-camp-greenland-556c-possibly-never-has-been-so-extremely-cold-so-early-in-the-season//.

Illustration picture: wetterzentrale.de, tropicaltidbits.com, wxhcarts.com
Expected minimum temperatures. Source: wetterzentrale.de
T850 hPa. Source: wxcharts.com
Expected snow cover. Source: tropicaltidbits.com
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Author: marekkucera
Writer about weather since 2007. The goal of this project is to inform a wide audience about extremes of weather, atmospheric circulation, and climate change around the world. If you like our work, you can support us on Patreon or donate.