Estimates of regional snowfall in Europe during an upcoming Arctic period 25.11-10.12. 2021




Europe hits premature and extremely strong winter!

A long period with very cold conditions is forecasted already between late November and early January 2021-2022 /visit our homepage, Winter forecast is available here: https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-for-northern-hemisphere//.

NAO index is forecasted to fall to the lowest values since extreme frosts in Europe in January and February 2021, when frosts up to -35°C appeared in Europe (Czechia, Hungary around 1000 MASL) and April 2021, when up to -20,6°C was measured in low situated basins and valleys below 1000 MASL (Slovenia) /https://mkweather.com/nao-index-falls-to-2-0-the-lowest-value-since-legendary-35c-frosts-in-europe-in-january-february-2021-or-206c-in-april-2021//.

Temperature is forecasted to decrease probably until the New Year /https://mkweather.com/extremely-cold-weather-until-a-new-year-2022-arctic-air-should-come-in-3-peaks-around-30-11-14-12-and-christmas-wider-european-region-estimates// and the first cold period has already started on Tuesday, 23. November, with a peak in the last November days and early December 2021.

Not only severe frosts, possibly almost -40°C in Scandinavia, up to -25°C in continental Europe, -20°C in British Islands and -15°C in the Mediterranean, but too severe blizzards across the continent are forecasted!

Cold weather has a bad impact on the virological situation, heart attack rates, many kinds of cancer, or should cause hypothermia.

Blizzards should cause widespread problems on roads, highways, or railways and power outagesincluding metropolitan areas.

If you live in possible hit regions, we highly recommend you to watch current weather news, forecasts, warnings, and advisories.

Estimates of regional snowfall in Europe during an upcoming Arctic period 25.11-10.12. 2021: Many regions with severe blizzards!

In this article, we are estimating the regional possibility of the depth of snow cover in densely populated frost valleys and basins below 1000 MASL (and lowlands) in the European wider region during the upcoming coldwaves between 25. November – 10. December 2021 (however, anomalously cold conditions should persist until New Year 2022(!)).

Already on Tuesday, 23. November, the temperature in Kevo, northern Finland, dropped to -29,0°C, which should be considered for the start of extreme coldwaves /https://mkweather.com/finland-290c-although-gfs-saw-only-20c-according-to-this-logic-40c-in-scandinavia-is-in-the-next-period-possible//. Current estimates for Scandinavia for around 29. November are saying about possible minimum temperatures around -37/-38°C and these estimates should change, yet.

Excluding southern Sweden, masses of snow and blizzard conditions are forecasted across the Scandinavian Peninsula – mainly in Norway and Lapland, later central Sweden and Finland. Most of Scandinavia will receive 10 – 50, regionally more than 1 meter of snowfall, below 1000 MASL.

In continental Europe (from France to Ukraine, including Balkan), many countries should report -20/-25°C soon /https://mkweather.com/arctic-frosts-up-to-25c-hit-the-region-from-france-to-ukraine-continental-europe//, very rarely, up to -30°C isn´t fully excluded.

In mountainous, but densely populated basins and valleys below 1000 MASL from France to Ukraine, 10 – 50 cm, locally more than 1 meter of snow is during the period possible. In lowlands, 10 – 30 or only 1 – 10 cm of snowfall is forecasted, rarely more.

In the UK, already around Sunday, 28. November 2021, -20°C is possible /https://mkweather.com/20c-in-the-uk-already-this-weekend-its-very-close-to-102-year-all-time-record//.

The most of snow is forecasted for Scotland and northern England, but snow will appear in other parts of the British Islands, including Ireland, too. Only southwestern Ireland should stay without snowfall.

In European Mediterranean, frosts up to -15°C below 1000 MASL are possible in Iberia or Italy, up to -15 or -20°C in southern Balkan and -25°C in northern Balkan /https://mkweather.com/the-mediterranean-hits-extreme-frosts-and-snowstorms-winter-2021-2022-will-come-very-early//. Densely populated basins in Turkey (Erzurum region) will go below -20°C, maybe up to -30°C, but its above 1500 MASL.

Snowing in the Mediterranean will occur mainly in basins and valleys around 500 – 1000 MASL, but too in some coastal areas. In mountainous regions in Balkan, 10 – 50 cm, locally above 1 meter is possible, in Spain, Italy, Greece, and Turkey, snow below 1000 MASL should reach regionally 10 – 30 cm, in lowlands and coasts locally or regionally 1 – 10 cm.

In Northern Africa and the northern Middle East, up to -10°C and snow should surprise the mountains.

Snowing in Atlas and later in December in the northern Middle East below 1000 MASL is possible.

Some countries of Europe, such as Ireland, Denmark, Portugal, Malta, or Cyprus should be thanks to oceanic or Mediterranean conditions warmer than continental states and snow should appear mainly such as snow sleets in lowlands or in the mountains.

Currently, not so much extreme winter (below -20°C) is forecasted for Baltic countries and Belarus, where should be a little warmer than in continental Europe, Balkan, and Ukraine, but it should change, yet.

However, the regions should receive polite snowfall, 10 – 50 cm.

Another Mkweather snowfall forecast for the European region you will find here: /https://mkweather.com/europe-under-the-snow-heavy-blizzards-on-the-way-in-these-regions-a-risk-of-snow-calamity/.

Don´t forget to stay safe and warm, because, in colder regions, extreme early winter should be health- or life-threatening.

Estimates of potential snowfall in regions below 1000 MASL (lower situated, densely populated basins, valleys, or lowlands) between 25. November – 10. December 2021 /Basemap mapchart.net
Output from tropicaltidbits.com from the last main run from 12Z (24.11.2021)
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Author: marekkucera
Writer about weather since 2007. The goal of this project is to inform a wide audience about extremes of weather, atmospheric circulation, and climate change around the world. If you like our work, you can support us on Patreon or donate.