Summer 2021/2022 forecast for Antarctica: chances for extreme temperatures in Vostok, mild winter in Antarctic Peninsula




Winter 2021/2022 is coming and we are bringing continental updates of predicted patterns for Europe, North America, Asia, Africa (Winter + Summer 2021/2022), Australia (Summer 2021/2022), and South America (Summer 2021/2022) + Antarctica (Summer 2021/2022)

In the last articles, we looked at forecasted Winter 2021/2022 conditions in Europe /https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-for-europe-early-extreme-arctic-and-siberian-blasts-and-blizzards-late-dry-and-very-warm-conditions// and North America /https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-for-north-america-a-peak-of-winter-with-extreme-arctic-blasts-and-blizzards-in-february-2022//and Asia /https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-for-asia-early-extreme-arctic-and-siberian-blasts-and-blizzards-late-dry-and-warm-conditions//, Summer 2021/2022 conditions in Australia and Oceania /https://mkweather.com/summer-2021-2022-forecast-for-australia-and-oceania-stormy-colder-la-nina-pattern-above-the-continent// and South America /http://mkweather.com/summer-2021-2022-forecast-for-south-america-stormy-north-hot-and-dry-south-cold-and-dry-pacific-coast// and Winter and Summer 2021/2022 in Africa. Now we should shortly look at an upcoming Summer in Antarctica.

The last update of the Winter forecast for the Northern Hemisphere we published here / https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-extreme-frosts-in-eurasia-in-december-in-north-america-in-february-early-canadian-stratospheric-warming-ne-pacific-blob-la-nina-qbo-and-shift-from-nao-to-nao-such-le/ /.

A few circulation patterns and important parameters will be affecting Antarctica during an upcoming summer:

  1. Still low solar activity: We are still after a solar minimum, at the beginning of a 25. solar cycle, with a weaker predicted solar cycle. Weaker solar cycles were in the last centuries associated mainly with El-nino phases, but El-nino, maybe with a Godzilla character, is currently forecasted only for Autumn 2022 and years 2023, 2024 and maybe 2025 /https://mkweather.com/2022-2023-forecast-chances-for-el-nino//. Little Ice Age = low solar activity = El nino = NAO- and AO- and high solar activity /stronger sun cycles= La nina = NAO+ and AO+ in long-term perspective). For colder Antarctica, important role should play mainly La nina /https://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2014/0102/La-Nina-slowing-Antarctic-melt-suggests-study/.
  2. Re-strengthening La Nina pattern: During the upcoming Summer 2021/2022, re-strengthening of La nina pattern is forecasted. In the last year, La nina should be linked with colder conditions acrross parts of Antarctica, with many events close to all-time temperature records, or even, new seasonal records were locally measured. La nina should be linked with a slowdown of Antarctic melting /link above/, colder conditions above the continent and warmer conditions across Southern Ocean, thanks to decreasing albedo above seas. The best condition for extreme frosts are associated with an ozone layer weakening and AAO+ trend in the last decades.
  3. AAO / SAM – Will bring Antarctic Oscillation positive phases and trend remains preserved? The South Pole experienced the coldest winter since records have begun /https://mkweather.com/the-south-pole-with-the-coldest-winter-in-history-average-temperature-april-september-half-year-only-610c// with anomalous temperatures even around 30. September 2021 /https://mkweather.com/vostok-794c-only-06c-from-the-all-time-october-record// thanks to positive phases of AAO / SAM (Antarctic Oscillation / Southern Annular Mode). After 2000, positive phases are more often throughout all year, including summer months (December, January, February). During AAO+, Antarctic vortex is very good developed above Southern Ocean, while above the continent is despite of lower geopotential pattern cummulating anomalously cold air masses, farther away a compact cyclonic systems surrounding Antarctica.
  4. A cooling above Southern Ocean: Trend with a melting of continental glacier and subsequent re-freezing of sweet frech waqter above Southern Ocean seas is associated with and increased albedo and then cooling trends above seas, what is visible on forecast temperature map below for Summer 2021/2022. too.
  5. Low geopotential above Antarctica such as a sign of strong and compact Antarctic polar vortex?: Higher pressure above mid-latitudes above northern Southern Ocean and southern parts fo South America, South Africa, Australia and Oceania and lower pressure above the Antarctica during AAO+ are usual /https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao.loading.shtml/. Lower geopotential across the continent is forecasted in Summer 2021/2022, too.
  6. IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) shift from negative to positive phase: IOD is forecasted to shift from its /negative to its positive phase during Summer 2021/2022, what means, that early winter should bring very stormy conditions , together with wet MJO and La nina, in eastern Indian Ocean, while western Indian Ocean will be anomalously hot and dry (East Africa), Positive IOD in late witner should be linked reversely, with a strengthening of a cyclone season in Africa (East Africa, Southeastern Africa, Madagascar, Mauritius…), with a possibility of an effect of remnants of tropical cyclones above Southern Ocean seas.
  7. Wet MJO: Activity of tropical lows will be during the winter shifted from eastern to western Indian Ocean, with some impact above circulation across southern parts of the ocean.

Now, we should look at a forecasted map for Winter 2021/2022 for Antarctica and 3 main sectors, with similar regimes of weather:

A) COLD AND DRY SECTORS IN SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS: Cold and dry conditions in Summer 2021/2022 aren´t forecasted fully in regions with the coldest meteorological stations (Vostok, Dome Fuji), but maybe with La Nina contribution, mainly in Pacific sector of Antarctica, mainly southeastward from New Zealand. Weather in New Zealand and Australia however thanks to AAO+ shouldn´t be affected (however colder and stormy summer in Australia is forecasted thanks to La Nina). Expeditions should be prepare for unseasonably summer cold blasts, with a possible temperature records below -50°C, but along the coast, rain and temperatures above 0°C should temporarily appear.

B) DRY SECTORS IN NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS: Good news for Vostok station, where dry pattern should bring extremely cold measurements during an upcoming winter, maybe up to -55/-60°C in the colder, second part fo summer (in December only -45°C). To this sector belong an area southeastward from Antarctic Peninsula, too, but with a higher chances for “heatwaves”, with temperatures along the coast around +5°C, maybe +10°C. Expeditions should be prepared for a possible extreme frosts in Vostok station.

C) WARM AND SNOWY / RAINY SECTORS IN NORTHEASTERN PARTS AND IN THE ANTARCTIC PENINSULA REGION: Northeastern Antartica and Antarctic Peninsula appear warm and snowy, Antarctic Peninsula rainy, here with a possible “heatwaves” above +15°C. In Dome Fuji however should temperatures temporarily drop below -40°C, later below -50°C during peaks of coldwaves. Warm conditions above African and Indian Ocean sector of Antarctica are very probably linked with an expected cold and less snowy/rainy conditions above the same sector of Southern Ocean. Expeditions should prepare for relatively good temperature conditions in Antarctic Peninsula, but with a possibility of above-average blizzard or storm occurrence, in northeastern Antarctica should be blizzards and snowstorms even stronger.

Continental forecasts for Autumn (in Southern Hemisphere Spring) 2021 we published here: https://mkweather.com/autumn-2021-forecast-for-europe-mostly-dry-and-frosty-autumn-be-prepared-for-early-severe-frosts/https://mkweather.com/autumn-2021-forecast-for-north-america-long-indian-summer-and-weaker-hurricane-season-such-as-expected/https://mkweather.com/autumn-2021-forecast-for-asia-strong-monsoon-for-s-se-e-asia-hot-and-dry-in-the-middle-east-late-siberian-cold-blasts-in-w-siberia-and-snow-calamities-in-e-siberia/https://mkweather.com/spring-autumn-forecast-for-africa-mostly-hot-and-dry-parts-of-sahel-equatorial-africa-stormy-and-south-africa-stormy-and-cold/https://mkweather.com/spring-2021-forecast-for-australia-and-oceania-under-la-nina-rules-cold-and-stormy-australia-warm-new-zealand-and-various-patterns-in-oceania/https://mkweather.com/spring-2021-forecast-for-south-america-floods-and-drought-in-many-regions/.

The last updates of the Winter 2021/2022 forecast for Northern Hemisphere we published here – and it really appears, that the upcoming winter will be probably peaking in Europe, Asia, and North Africa around December 2021 and early January 2022 and in North America around February 2022 (forecasts are still confirming): https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-extreme-frosts-in-eurasia-in-december-in-north-america-in-february-early-canadian-stratospheric-warming-ne-pacific-blob-la-nina-qbo-and-shift-from-nao-to-nao-such-le/https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-a-peak-near-nao-already-in-december-ne-pacific-warm-blob-nao-and-early-spring-in-february-north-america-oppositely-warm-start-cold-end-of-winter/https://mkweather.com/mkweather-special-forecast-for-the-next-3-seasons-cold-autumn-2021-warmer-winter-2021-2022-cold-spring-2021-for-europe-a-peak-of-winter-in-its-colder-first-half-north-america-with-extreme-cold-2021-20/https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-the-first-reliable-estimates-extreme-cold-blasts-from-canada-and-western-siberia-snow-in-western-europe-and-eastern-asia-la-nina-qbo-to-qbo-shift-sufficient-nao-ao/ and we published ENSO outlook, too /https://mkweather.com/2022-2023-forecast-chances-for-el-nino//. It is also worth mentioning the Russian forecast for Siberia for Winter 2021/2022 (agree with our forecasts) /https://mkweather.com/russian-meteorologists-expect-extreme-winter-around-december-january-2021-22//.

Mkweather until 30. November will be updating Winter 2021/2022 forecasts for Northern Hemisphere, yet, approximately 3-5 times, therefore stay watch weather with us and be prepared for possible early attacks of the winter and Mediterranean lows in North Africa. Be careful and watch storm forecasts in South African countries, during the upcoming Summer 2021/2022, too and stay safe in other regions, near severe storms in Equatorial/Western Africa or severe drought in Eastern or South-Central Africa.

Base map: wikipedia.org
A map of meteorological station in Antarctica /Source: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-map-shows-the-main-research-stations-in-Antarctica_fig1_349332498
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao.loading.shtml

Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/?facets=%7B%22Product%20type%22%3A%5B%5D%2C%22Range%22%3A%5B%22Long%20%28Months%29%22%5D%2C%22Parameters%22%3A%5B%5D%2C%22Type%22%3A%5B%22Forecasts%22%5D%7D

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

Source: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/?fbclid=IwAR1zjClY2kOKntVQM3d5v8qOSUVbSrEFuumUBRyA7npSBa1hjs5nMCxMpqk#tabs=Pacific-Ocean
Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_nino_annual_plumes?base_time=202108010000&nino_area=NINO3-4
Source: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

Source: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

Source: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

Source: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

Source: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/?fbclid=IwAR1zjClY2kOKntVQM3d5v8qOSUVbSrEFuumUBRyA7npSBa1hjs5nMCxMpqk#tabs=Indian-Ocean

Source: https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52qz/mjo/chi/cfs.gif
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/new.aao_index_ensm.html
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/monthly.aao.index.b79.current.ascii.table
Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_tstorm_density_standard?base_time=202110010000

Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_standard_ssto?area=GLOB&base_time=202110010000&stats=tsum&valid_time=202112020000

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Author: marekkucera
Writer about weather since 2007. The goal of this project is to inform a wide audience about extremes of weather, atmospheric circulation, and climate change around the world. If you like our work, you can support us on Patreon or donate.