-20°C and heavy snowfall in Spain are still possible! Cold weather in Portugal and North Africa, too




In the last series of articles (our homepage), since late October 2021, we have been warning before an early arrival of winter conditions in Europe, which were forecasted to strengthen until the end of the month.

NAO index is forecasted to fall into values around -1 already in 10 days /https://mkweather.com/the-end-of-november-should-bring-a-very-low-nao-index-greenlandic-arctic-and-siberian-winter-should-come-very-early-peaks-between-20-11-20-12-2021//, with a result of extremely cold conditions across wider European region /https://mkweather.com/winter-should-be-strengthening-until-new-year-2022-wider-european-region-estimates// until Christmas 2021, or maybe even a New Year 2022.

These forecasts were supported by ensemble outputs (GFS model) /https://mkweather.com/extended-gfs-ensemble-forecast-for-european-region-until-30-november-2021-arctic-winter-will-come-already-next-week//.

Near very low AO index, winter-like patterns are already appearing in the USA, Siberia, China, or North Africa /https://mkweather.com/severe-snowstorms-in-midwest-during-thanksgiving-25-11-are-possible/; https://mkweather.com/delyankir-418c-dzalinda-408c-oymyakon-405c-if-these-frosts-had-struck-a-week-earlier-they-would-have-been-historic/; https://mkweather.com/northeastern-china-hit-the-strongest-blizzard-in-116-years-in-taiwan-and-japan-still-summer/; https://mkweather.com/the-first-snow-in-algeria-morocco-and-tunisia//.

The newest forecasts for Spain count with a possibility of values up to -12°C for basins and valleys during late November or early December 2021, which should mean a very rare potential for temperatures up to interval -15/-20°C in basins and valleys in northern Iberia or the Pyrenees region (lower situated basins and valleys below 1000 MASL).

These temperatures are deeply below November’s and early December´s historic averages.

Severe frosts below -10°C are according to the next extreme runs possible in central Spain and -10°C should be overcome in northern Portugal.

Frosts 0/-5°C should appear in Andalusia and lower elevated parts of Morocco, Algeria, or Tunisia (0-1000 MASL).

T850 hPa should reach almost -10°C above the Pyrenees during the peaking of coldwaves.

Moreover, snow cover and severe blizzards are forecasted for northern parts of the peninsula and rarely, snow is not excluded in Andalusia, Morocco, Algeria, or Tunisia, too.

Air, which will flood Europe soon, will have origin in Greenland, where record -55,6°C was on 7. November measured – so extremely low temperatures have never appeared above Summit so early, so far /https://mkweather.com/summit-camp-greenland-556c-possibly-never-has-been-so-extremely-cold-so-early-in-the-season//.

Illustration picture: wetterzentrale.de, tropicaltidbits.com

Source: wetterzentrale.de

Source: wxcharts.com

Source: tropicaltidbits.com
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Author: marekkucera
Writer about weather since 2007. The goal of this project is to inform a wide audience about extremes of weather, atmospheric circulation, and climate change around the world. If you like our work, you can support us on Patreon or donate.