Extreme frosts (-20°C below 1000 MASL) for Balkan, Turkey, and Italy!

In the last series of articles (our homepage), since late October 2021, we have been warning before an early arrival of winter conditions in Europe, which were forecasted to strengthen until the end of the month.

NAO index is forecasted to fall into values around -1 already in 10 days /https://mkweather.com/the-end-of-november-should-bring-a-very-low-nao-index-greenlandic-arctic-and-siberian-winter-should-come-very-early-peaks-between-20-11-20-12-2021//, with a result of extremely cold conditions across wider European region /https://mkweather.com/winter-should-be-strengthening-until-new-year-2022-wider-european-region-estimates// until Christmas 2021, or maybe even a New Year 2022.

These forecasts were supported by ensemble outputs (GFS model) /https://mkweather.com/extended-gfs-ensemble-forecast-for-european-region-until-30-november-2021-arctic-winter-will-come-already-next-week//.

Near very low AO index, winter-like patterns are already appearing in the USA, Siberia, China, or North Africa /https://mkweather.com/severe-snowstorms-in-midwest-during-thanksgiving-25-11-are-possible/; https://mkweather.com/delyankir-418c-dzalinda-408c-oymyakon-405c-if-these-frosts-had-struck-a-week-earlier-they-would-have-been-historic/; https://mkweather.com/northeastern-china-hit-the-strongest-blizzard-in-116-years-in-taiwan-and-japan-still-summer/; https://mkweather.com/the-first-snow-in-algeria-morocco-and-tunisia//.

The newest forecasts for Balkan, Turkey, and Italy count with a possibility of values up to -10/-15°C for basins and valleys below 1000 MASL at the end of November 2021, which should mean a very rare potential for temperatures below -20°C across the region (in lower situated basins and valleys below 1000 MASL, higher elevated basins and valleys should be even colder – mainly in Turkey (e.g. Erzurum) up to -30°C). Italy should be a little warmer.

These temperatures are deeply below November’s and early December´s historic averages.

T850 hPa should a few days earlier reach below -10°C above parts of northern Balkan.

Snow cover and severe blizzards are forecasted for large parts of Balkan and Turkey. In Italy, snow will appear mainly in mountainous basins and valleys (runs from 12Z are snowier than from 06 Z for Italy – we recommend checking later).

Snow cover along with coastal areas of Italy, Balkan, Greece, or Turkey, however, isn´t regionally excluded, mainly during night and morning hours.

Air, which will flood Europe soon, will have origin in Greenland, where record -55,6°C was on 7. November measured – so extremely low temperatures have never appeared above Summit so early, so far /https://mkweather.com/summit-camp-greenland-556c-possibly-never-has-been-so-extremely-cold-so-early-in-the-season//.

Illustration picture: wetterzentrale.de

Source: wetterzentrale.de
Source: wetterzentrale.de
Source: wxcharts.com

Expected snow cover 06Z 15.11. (note: for Italy is run 12Z 15.11. much snowier, but not uploaded yet). Source: tropicaltidbits.com

Update: Expected snow cover according to 12Z run (15.11.2021):

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Author: marekkucera
Writer about weather since 2007. The goal of this project is to inform a wide audience about extremes of weather, atmospheric circulation, and climate change around the world. If you like our work, you can support us on Patreon or donate.