In the last series of articles (our homepage), since late October 2021, we have been warning before an early arrival of winter conditions in Europe, which were forecasted to strengthen until the end of the month.
NAO index is forecasted to fall into values around -1 already in 10 days /https://mkweather.com/the-end-of-november-should-bring-a-very-low-nao-index-greenlandic-arctic-and-siberian-winter-should-come-very-early-peaks-between-20-11-20-12-2021//, with a result of extremely cold conditions across wider European region /https://mkweather.com/winter-should-be-strengthening-until-new-year-2022-wider-european-region-estimates// until Christmas 2021, or maybe even a New Year 2022.
These forecasts were supported by ensemble outputs (GFS model) /https://mkweather.com/extended-gfs-ensemble-forecast-for-european-region-until-30-november-2021-arctic-winter-will-come-already-next-week//.
Near very low AO index, winter-like patterns are already appearing in the USA, Siberia, China, or North Africa /https://mkweather.com/severe-snowstorms-in-midwest-during-thanksgiving-25-11-are-possible/; https://mkweather.com/delyankir-418c-dzalinda-408c-oymyakon-405c-if-these-frosts-had-struck-a-week-earlier-they-would-have-been-historic/; https://mkweather.com/northeastern-china-hit-the-strongest-blizzard-in-116-years-in-taiwan-and-japan-still-summer/; https://mkweather.com/the-first-snow-in-algeria-morocco-and-tunisia//.
The newest forecasts for parts of Ukraine, Belarus, and Moscow region, Russia, count with a possibility of values up to -25°C for basins and valleys around 29. November 2021, which should mean a very rare potential for temperatures below -30°C in northeastern Ukraine, eastern Belarus, and Moscow (lowlands).
These temperatures are deeply below November’s historic averages.
Severe frosts below-20°C are according to the next extreme runs possible in eastern Baltic states, which will be a topic of one of the next Mkweather articles in the series.
T850 hPa should a few days earlier reach below -15°C above the region.
Moreover, snow cover and severe blizzards are forecasted for large parts of Baltic states, Belarus and northern Ukraine, with 10 – 30, in the north up to 50 cm of snow.
Air, which will flood Europe soon, will have origin in Greenland, where record -55,6°C was on 7. November measured – so extremely low temperatures have never appeared above Summit so early, so far /https://mkweather.com/summit-camp-greenland-556c-possibly-never-has-been-so-extremely-cold-so-early-in-the-season//.