In the last series of articles (our homepage), since late October 2021, we have been warning before an early arrival of winter conditions in Europe, which were forecasted to strengthen until the end of the month.
NAO index is forecasted to fall into values around -1 already in 10 days /https://mkweather.com/the-end-of-november-should-bring-a-very-low-nao-index-greenlandic-arctic-and-siberian-winter-should-come-very-early-peaks-between-20-11-20-12-2021//, with a result of extremely cold conditions across wider European region /https://mkweather.com/winter-should-be-strengthening-until-new-year-2022-wider-european-region-estimates// until Christmas 2021, or maybe even a New Year 2022.
These forecasts were supported by ensemble outputs (GFS model) /https://mkweather.com/extended-gfs-ensemble-forecast-for-european-region-until-30-november-2021-arctic-winter-will-come-already-next-week//.
Near very low AO index, winter-like patterns are already appearing in the USA, Siberia, China, or North Africa /https://mkweather.com/severe-snowstorms-in-midwest-during-thanksgiving-25-11-are-possible/; https://mkweather.com/delyankir-418c-dzalinda-408c-oymyakon-405c-if-these-frosts-had-struck-a-week-earlier-they-would-have-been-historic/; https://mkweather.com/northeastern-china-hit-the-strongest-blizzard-in-116-years-in-taiwan-and-japan-still-summer/; https://mkweather.com/the-first-snow-in-algeria-morocco-and-tunisia//.
The newest forecasts for Central Europe count with a possibility of values up to -15/-20°C for basins and valleys around 29. November 2021, which should mean a very rare potential for temperatures up to interval -20/-25°C in densely populated mountainous basins and valleys in southern Poland, Slovakia, Czechia, Austria, Switzerland, or Bavaria, Germany (lower situated basins and valleys below 1000 MASL).
These temperatures are deeply below November’s and early December´s historic averages.
Severe frosts below -25°C will be possible in famous Czechian basins and valleys, tightly above 1000 MASL, too.
Very low temperatures, -10/-15°C should be measured in many metropolitan areas in lowlands in Central European countries, too.
T850 hPa should reach during the coldest days only -10/-15°C above parts of Central Europe, mainly Poland, eastern Germany, and Slovakia.
Moreover, snow cover and blizzards in the mountains are forecasted for large parts of Central Europe (areas with snowfall should change within the next runs of GFS, yet).
Air, which will flood Europe soon, will have origin in Greenland, where record -55,6°C was on 7. November measured – so extremely low temperatures have never appeared above Summit so early, so far /https://mkweather.com/summit-camp-greenland-556c-possibly-never-has-been-so-extremely-cold-so-early-in-the-season//.