Already in a series of the last articles we were informed about expected severe frosts in Europe /https://mkweather.com/20c-frosts-for-continental-europe-are-forecasted-extreme-winter-should-hit-already-around-15-november-2021/; https://mkweather.com/miercurea-ciuc-romania-with-8-days-with-temperatures-7-11c-before-a-heatwave/; https://mkweather.com/extreme-coldwaves-in-continental-europe-confirmed-ensembles-cold-weather-should-be-lasting-up-to-45-days-with-a-peak-around-20-november-10-december-2021-mkweather-estimates/; https://mkweather.com/be-prepared-for-an-extremely-long-and-strong-coldwave-arctic-blasts-in-europe-between-10-november-15-december-are-expected/; https://mkweather.com/the-6-week-daily-forecast-for-the-wider-european-region-from-gismeteo-until-5-december-2021/; https://mkweather.com/winter-will-come-earlier-than-was-forecasted-30c-in-scandinavia-20c-in-central-europe-and-10c-in-british-island-around-10-november-is-possible//.
GFS outputs are every day changing and we should look at the last main outputs from 3. November 12Z – mainly for western parts of Europe, where really severe frosts will be possible.
Frosts in the next week, already around 11. November 2021, should hit almost all France, Germany, Benelux, Alpine region, Czechia, Poland, northern Spain, and even rarely northern Portugal, after a powerful Arctic blast with an origin in Greenland.
In France, -2/-8°C in lowlands and -8/-15°C in frost basins and valleys below 1000 MASL is possible.
Similar temperatures, maybe a little lower are forecasted for Germany and Alpine countries, and too Czechia.
In Benelux, northern Spain, and Poland, the first -10°C and lower of the season should surprise according to these runs of GFS.
Although the last runs are warmer, still are here big risks of severe coldwaves after 10. November.
A long-term cold period is forecasted to persist approximately to 15. December 2021 /links above/ and it should be associated with an extremely cold start of Winter 2021/2022 (winter forecasts you can visit here: /https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-for-europe-early-extreme-arctic-and-siberian-blasts-and-blizzards-late-dry-and-very-warm-conditions/; https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-extreme-frosts-in-eurasia-in-december-in-north-america-in-february-early-canadian-stratospheric-warming-ne-pacific-blob-la-nina-qbo-and-shift-from-nao-to-nao-such-le/; https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-a-peak-near-nao-already-in-december-ne-pacific-warm-blob-nao-and-early-spring-in-february-north-america-oppositely-warm-start-cold-end-of-winter/; https://mkweather.com/russian-meteorologists-expect-extreme-winter-around-december-january-2021-22//.
Therefore, stay warm, safe, and informed, we will bring updates until the arrival of an Arctic winter.
