Europe hits premature and extremely strong winter!
A long period with very cold conditions is forecasted already between late November and early January 2021-2022 /visit our homepage, Winter forecast is available here: https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-for-northern-hemisphere//.
NAO index is forecasted to fall to the lowest values since extreme frosts in Europe in January and February 2021, when frosts up to -35°C appeared in Europe (Czechia, Hungary around 1000 MASL) and April 2021, when up to -20,6°C was measured in low situated basins and valleys below 1000 MASL (Slovenia) /https://mkweather.com/nao-index-falls-to-2-0-the-lowest-value-since-legendary-35c-frosts-in-europe-in-january-february-2021-or-206c-in-april-2021//.
Temperature is forecasted to decrease probably until the New Year /https://mkweather.com/extremely-cold-weather-until-a-new-year-2022-arctic-air-should-come-in-3-peaks-around-30-11-14-12-and-christmas-wider-european-region-estimates// and the first cold period has already started on Tuesday, 23. November, with a peak in the last November days and early December 2021.
Not only severe frosts, possibly almost -40°C in Scandinavia, up to -25°C in continental Europe, -20°C in British Islands and -15°C in the Mediterranean, but too severe blizzards across the continent are forecasted!
Cold weather has a bad impact on the virological situation, heart attack rates, many kinds of cancer, or should cause hypothermia.
Blizzards should cause widespread problems on roads, highways, or railways and power outages, including metropolitan areas.
If you live in possible hit regions, we highly recommend you to watch current weather news, forecasts, warnings, and advisories.
Extremely cold outlook in Europe: Arctic air masses will be shifting from western and northern to eastern and southern Europe (GFS ENS for 16 cities)
The first peak of Winter 2021/2022 will come to the European region this winter prematurely early.
About expected extreme temperatures we were informed in the last Mkweather articles /https://mkweather.com/late-november-and-early-december-2021-coldwave-in-europe-25-11-10-12-2021-national-top-minimum-temperatures-berlow-1000-masl-estimates/; https://mkweather.com/the-mediterranean-hits-extreme-frosts-and-snowstorms-winter-2021-2022-will-come-very-early/; https://mkweather.com/arctic-frosts-up-to-25c-hit-the-region-from-france-to-ukraine-continental-europe/; https://mkweather.com/finland-290c-although-gfs-saw-only-20c-according-to-this-logic-40c-in-scandinavia-is-in-the-next-period-possible/; https://mkweather.com/20c-in-the-uk-already-this-weekend-its-very-close-to-102-year-all-time-record//.
Moreover, blizzard conditions across Europe are during this period possible in many regions /https://mkweather.com/estimates-of-regional-snowfall-in-europe-during-an-upcoming-arctic-period-25-11-10-12-2021/; https://mkweather.com/europe-under-the-snow-heavy-blizzards-on-the-way-in-these-regions-a-risk-of-snow-calamity//.
In this article, we will look at GFS ENS for 16 European cities (regions marked on title image by abbreviations).
While in western and northern regions, the most extreme winter is forecasted mainly in the first half of outlook, until the half of December 2021, eastern and southern regions are showing a presence of anomalously cold air masses mainly in the second and third December decades.
These outputs are a little different, such as our forecasts until 2. January 2022 from Gismeteo /https://mkweather.com/long-term-forecast-until-2-january-2022-extreme-arctic-winter-in-europe-until-new-year//, where, an intensifying of winter is forecasted mainly around Christmas and the New Year almost in all regions.
Extremely cold air will be coming mainly according to a position of part of a polar vortex, shifting above Europe from west to the east in the next weeks.
Despite warmer GSF ENS, many cold runs of GFS have appeared in forecasts for western and northern Europe, too, forecasts for Christmas and New Year, therefore, haven´t to be fully definitive, yet.
According to Mkweather estimates, however, colder variants during the first half of Winter 2021/2022 are more probable /You should visit our last Winter 2021/2022 forecast: https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-for-northern-hemisphere//.
Source: https://wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=15&model=gfs&var=2&run=99&lid=ENS&bw=
