Already in the last articles and Spring 2022 forecast for Europe we announced early-spring conditions for Europe in February and March 2022 /https://mkweather.com/ecmwf-6-week-forecast-for-europe-until-21-february-2022/; https://mkweather.com/early-spring-in-february-2022-is-confirming-strong-nao-is-predicted/; https://mkweather.com/spring-2022-will-come-in-february-nao-and-extremely-warm-early-spring-conditions-in-february-and-march-2022-are-predicted-cfs-ecmwf/; https://mkweather.com/spring-2022-forecast-for-europe-early-dry-late-stormy-very-warm/.
Forecasts about very early spring conditions mainly for the northern and western half of Europe are confirming and a new ECMWF 6-week forecast sees a possibility of NAO+ phase already from 5. February 2022.
NAO+ will be very probably linked with a strong pressure Azores high near the British Islands and a warm spell shifting from British Islands above Scandinavia, Western, Central Europe, and the western half of the Mediterranean.
Before early-spring weather, however, a peak of Winter 2021/2022 in all parts of Europe is still forecast /https://mkweather.com/a-peak-of-winter-in-the-british-islands-between-17-25-january-2022-up-to-15c-possible/; https://mkweather.com/a-peak-of-winter-in-the-british-islands-between-17-25-january-2022-up-to-15c-possible/; https://mkweather.com/life-threatening-40c-frosts-for-scandinavia-between-15-25-january-2022/; https://mkweather.com/spain-portugal-and-nw-africa-with-a-possible-2-week-lasting-peak-of-winter-2021-2022-severe-frosts-and-snowfall/; https://mkweather.com/france-and-benelux-with-returning-frosts-and-snowfall-in-alpine-valleys-below-1000-masl-below-20c-possible-ardennes-around-12c/; https://mkweather.com/drastic-gfs-run-with-a-hard-siberian-blast-for-italy-and-balkan-30c-in-balkan-and-the-alps-valleys-20c-for-the-apennines/; https://mkweather.com/eastern-europe-temperature-should-stop-in-interval-25-30c-estonia-already-228c-and-latvia-204c/; https://mkweather.com/turkey-and-the-northern-middle-east-with-a-severe-siberian-blast-eastern-turkey-below-30c-lebanon-10c//, with a possible temperatures up to -30°C in Central, Eastern Europe and Balkan (valleys below 1000 MASL), -40°C in Scandinavia or -15°C in British Islands and Iberia.
Cold air masses from Europe will be slowly shifting above NE Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia, where winter conditions should persist longer, maybe during all February 2022.
In Europe, gradually, early-spring temperatures up to +15°C in southern Scandinavia, up to +20°C in mid-latitudes, and up to +30°C in the warmest places of the Mediterranean, should appear during February 2022 and in March 2022 should be even little warmer.
Coldwaves with snow and frosts should return around April 2022, when NAO should shift into neutral phase with NAO- episodes /https://mkweather.com/spring-2022-forecast-for-europe-early-dry-late-stormy-very-warm/; https://mkweather.com/spring-2022-forecast-for-asia/; https://mkweather.com/spring-and-autumn-2022-forecast-for-africa-mostly-stormy-and-hot-south-colder//.
Week after week between 10. January – 21. February 2022 /ECMWF
