In the last series of articles, we brought the next extreme outputs of the GFS model, expecting anomalous coldwaves in late November and early December 2021 in Europe (and its wider region) /https://mkweather.com/hopes-for-a-very-rare-25c-in-november-central-europe-hits-extreme-frosts-and-snowfall-too/; https://mkweather.com/20c-in-france-still-possible-snow-is-forecasted-almost-everywhere-in-france-and-benelux/; https://mkweather.com/20c-and-heavy-snowfall-in-spain-are-still-possible-cold-weather-in-portugal-and-north-africa-too/; https://mkweather.com/extreme-frosts-20c-below-1000-masl-for-balkan-turkey-and-italy/; https://mkweather.com/30c-in-ukraine-belarus-and-moscow-region-russia-winter-in-2021-should-come-very-early/; https://mkweather.com/scandinavia-is-preparing-for-life-threatening-arctic-blasts-temperatures-up-to-35c-and-blizzards-in-the-baltic-region-are-forecasted/; https://mkweather.com/beast-from-the-east-for-british-islands-is-still-forecasted-snow-and-a-possibility-of-15-20c-frosts-in-scotland//.
About a predicted early arrival of Winter 2021/2022, we wrote already in July 2021 /https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-in-europe-should-start-very-early-nao-and-cold-airflow-are-predicted-2021-2022-winter//.
Extremely cold conditions will arrive after historically cold air masses above Greenland /https://mkweather.com/summit-camp-greenland-556c-possibly-never-has-been-so-extremely-cold-so-early-in-the-season// will flood Europe, soon, thanks to upcoming negative phases of Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations (AO- and NAO-) /https://mkweather.com/be-prepared-for-an-extremely-long-and-strong-coldwave-arctic-blasts-in-europe-between-10-november-15-december-are-expected/; https://mkweather.com/the-end-of-november-should-bring-a-very-low-nao-index-greenlandic-arctic-and-siberian-winter-should-come-very-early-peaks-between-20-11-20-12-2021//.
There is a possibility, that the NAO index will fall in the last November 2021 days up to -2, which is a very rare value, with a result of Mediterranean lows activity, blizzards in southern parts of mid-latitudes, and expansion of extremely, regionally maybe abnormally cold air masses from Greenland, Arctic, and Siberia above many parts of mid-latitudes and shortly even, to tropical climate zone.
Potentially historic outputs of GFS already appeared on the last GFS outputs for British Islands, with a possibility of -10°C frosts in London and -20°C in Scotland in late November 2021 /https://mkweather.com/historic-frosts-below-10c-in-london-20c-in-scotland-possible-all-uk-and-ireland-under-the-snow//.
According to GFS runs from 12Z, 17. November 2021, extreme frosts up to -30°C in famous (e.g. Czechian) valleys around 1000 MASL are possible and frosts around -25°C should surprise in altitudes 500 – 1000 MASL, in densely populated basins and valleys across continental Europe, from France to Ukraine (mainly France, Germany, Czechia, Slovakia, Poland, Switzerland, Austria or Slovenia).
Extreme frosts hit practically all continent. Many metropolitan cities should report minimum temperatures below -15°C, locally even below -20°C according to the last predictions!
Above mentioned temperatures are at a level of the all-time temperature record for late November and early December in continental Europe, frosts therefore should be regionally historic.
Moreover, snow cover should create almost in all Europe, in central parts with a high probability of blizzard and snow calamity conditions according to the last outputs – mainly in eastern France, southern Belgium, Luxembourg, western and southern Germany, Switzerland, the eastern half of Czechia, Austria, Slovakia, and neighboring Poland, Slovenia, northern Croatia, parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina or northern Italy.
Frosts will start already early next week, around Tuesday, 23. November 2021 and will be lasting minimally until the end of outlook, 3. December 2021, therefore minimally 10-12 days, although, according to our long-term forecasts, probably until New Year 2022 /https://mkweather.com/winter-should-be-strengthening-until-new-year-2022-wider-european-region-estimates//.
Extreme winter conditions should bring worse virological situation, more heart attacks, worse conditions for many types of cancer, or risk of hypothermia, such as bad conditions and accidents on roads and highways, limitations for outdoor activities, or regional gas crisis.
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