In the last series of articles, we brought the next extreme outputs of the GFS model, expecting anomalous coldwaves in late November and early December 2021 in Europe (and its wider region) /https://mkweather.com/hopes-for-a-very-rare-25c-in-november-central-europe-hits-extreme-frosts-and-snowfall-too/; https://mkweather.com/20c-in-france-still-possible-snow-is-forecasted-almost-everywhere-in-france-and-benelux/; https://mkweather.com/20c-and-heavy-snowfall-in-spain-are-still-possible-cold-weather-in-portugal-and-north-africa-too/; https://mkweather.com/extreme-frosts-20c-below-1000-masl-for-balkan-turkey-and-italy/; https://mkweather.com/30c-in-ukraine-belarus-and-moscow-region-russia-winter-in-2021-should-come-very-early/; https://mkweather.com/scandinavia-is-preparing-for-life-threatening-arctic-blasts-temperatures-up-to-35c-and-blizzards-in-the-baltic-region-are-forecasted/; https://mkweather.com/beast-from-the-east-for-british-islands-is-still-forecasted-snow-and-a-possibility-of-15-20c-frosts-in-scotland//.
About a predicted early arrival of Winter 2021/2022, we wrote already in July 2021 /https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-in-europe-should-start-very-early-nao-and-cold-airflow-are-predicted-2021-2022-winter//.
Extremely cold conditions will arrive after historically cold air masses above Greenland /https://mkweather.com/summit-camp-greenland-556c-possibly-never-has-been-so-extremely-cold-so-early-in-the-season// will flood Europe, soon, thanks to upcoming negative phases of Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations (AO- and NAO-) /https://mkweather.com/be-prepared-for-an-extremely-long-and-strong-coldwave-arctic-blasts-in-europe-between-10-november-15-december-are-expected/; https://mkweather.com/the-end-of-november-should-bring-a-very-low-nao-index-greenlandic-arctic-and-siberian-winter-should-come-very-early-peaks-between-20-11-20-12-2021//.
There is a possibility, that the NAO index will fall in the last November 2021 days up to -2, which is a very rare value, with a result of Mediterranean lows activity, blizzards in southern parts of mid-latitudes, and expansion of extremely, regionally maybe abnormally cold air masses from Greenland, Arctic, and Siberia above many parts of mid-latitudes and shortly even, to tropical climate zone.
Potentially historic outputs of GFS already appeared on the last GFS outputs for British Islands, with a possibility of -10°C frosts in London and -20°C in Scotland in late November 2021 /https://mkweather.com/historic-frosts-below-10c-in-london-20c-in-scotland-possible-all-uk-and-ireland-under-the-snow//.
Some from the last GFS runs returned historically low temperatures for parts of France, with the risk of minimum temperatures up to -25°C in lower situated basins and valleys below 1000 MASL (Mkweather estimates).
The eastern half of France should receive 10 – 50, regionally more than 100 cm of snow in lower elevated regions, including metropolitan areas.
10 – 30, locally up to 50 cm of snow was projected even for Luxembourg and the southern half of Belgium.
-20°C frosts should be possible in metropolitan cities in eastern France, with a deep snow cover, and -20°C should be possible according to these outputs in southern Benelux, too.
Some outputs are milder, with still with severe frosts; winter fairytale should return into GFS outputs practically every 6 hours, in new outputs and coldwave is beginning already on Tuesday, 23. November 2021.
Frosts will be lasting minimally until the end of outlook, 4. December 2021, therefore minimally 12 days, although, according to our long-term forecasts, probably until New Year 2022 /https://mkweather.com/winter-should-be-strengthening-until-new-year-2022-wider-european-region-estimates//.
Extreme winter conditions should bring worse virological situation, more heart attacks, worse conditions for many types of cancer, or risk of hypothermia, such as bad conditions and accidents on roads and highways, limitations for outdoor activities, or regional gas crisis.
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