Winter 2021/2022 forecast: Chances for White Christmas 2021 are higher than usual / A hope for NAO- and return of winter conditions in February!




Winter 2021/2022 is coming and we are bringing the next update of predicted character for the winter season in the Northern Hemisphere.

Before a cold December 2021 and early January 2022 period a long period of Indian summer in November 2021 in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere, are predicted /https://mkweather.com/november-heatwave-hits-europe-germany-25c-france-30c-spain-33c/; http://mkweather.com/20c-in-northern-25c-in-southern-mid-latitudes-in-november-2021-untraditionally-late-indian-summer-for-northern-hemisphere-is-confirming//, but the second half of November should be already very cold in Europe /https://mkweather.com/we-will-see-20c-in-november-in-europe-long-term-forecasts-promise-the-arrival-of-winter-2021-2022-in-the-second-half-of-november-snow-and-severe-frosts-are-possible//, what should be linked with changes of atmospheric circulation.

10 circulation parameters we detailed analyzed in articles /links below/, mainly the first link below and in continental forecasts for Winter (Summer) 2021/2022 – we highly recommend this reading about La Nina, NAO and AO conditions, NE Pacific Warm Blob anomaly, Early Canadian Stratospheric Warming, QBO, IOD, MJO, a possible SSW, AAO, and current solar activity status.

December 2021 – Chances for White Christmas in Europe higher, in the USA will be important a timing of low-pressure systems and atmospheric fronts

Thanks to a possible neutral or negative NAO and AO phases in late November, December, and early January 2021-2022, a peak of Winter 2021/2022 in Europe is still forecasted in this period – mainly around Christmas and New Year´s Eve.

While CFS see colder conditions mainly in December for the western half of Europe and then in February in the northern half of the continent (update), in North America, warmer December and very cold February is still forecasted. ECMWF believes in a neutral or colder winter in the mid-latitudes of Eurasia, western and central Canada / northern USA, and Greenland sector.

In Europe, not only neutral / colder temperature anomaly for western half in December, but too many Mediterranean lows according to CFS are for the month forecasted, which means really good potential for Arctic blasts.

However, Siberia should be warm, thanks to anomalous snowfall, which in many regions brings 2-4 x more snow than average /link to Russian forecast below/.

The probability of White Christmas 2021 in Europe – mainly western, central, and northern parts, but near good timing of Mediterranean lows in southern Europe and Balkan, too, is, therefore, higher, than we should expect in recent climate conditions. Warmer Eastern Europe doesn´t mean, that snow shouldn’t cover the region thanks to colder climate conditions and the warming effect of blizzards.

Colder conditions and snow should report at Christmas parts of western and central Canada, or the northern USA, with a high probability, too. Other regions will probably depend on the good timing of atmospheric fronts and low-pressure systems.

Cold December is forecasted in parts of East Asia, with a probability of White Christmas, too.

January 2022 – after an early peak of Winter 2021/2022, change of circulation conditions

In many parts of the Northern Hemisphere, extremely cold conditions from a possible Major SSW should be peaking around early January 2022 (-30°C frosts in continental Europe, -45°C in Scandinavia, -50°C in Canada, and -65°C in Siberia), but gradually, thanks to NE Pacific Warm Blob and possible swap to NAO+ / AO+, significant warming up will be in the middle of winter possible.

Worsening of winter conditions should be associated with a lack of snow in many regions and above-average temperatures, in extreme cases in European mid-latitudes up to +20°C. However, NAO+ brings better winter conditions in Eastern Canada and Great Lakes region (or northern Northeast) gradually and cold temperature anomaly frťom western and central Canada will spread up to the eastern shores of the continent.

La Nina will be still cooling the Earth and the easterly QBO phase will be not probably so important thanks to NAO+/AO+.

IOD and MJO conditions (a transition from negative to positive IOD and shift of MJO activity from SE Asia westward) should mean not only a stronger cyclone season in Africa but to a stronger NAO+/AO+ mainly in the second half of January and the first half of February 2022.

After a predicted very warm period in the middle of the winter, however, a new hope appeared for February 2021, with a possible return of winter conditions.

February 2022 – A hope for NAO- and return of winter conditions? (Late October 2021 Update)

Mainly a possible return into NAO- / AO- phases (ECMWF) should be linked in February 2022 with a return of very cold conditions – CFS sees colder anomalies for the northern half of Europe and still is forecasted extreme winter in Canada and the northern USA, with possible blizzards in southern regions of the USA.

A hope for returning of snowy conditions and extreme frosts in the last winter weeks is therefore still alive, although, March 2022 is forecasted to be mostly warm, while April 2022 is already colder.

Although CFS sees still very deep Icelandic low, which is a sign of a strong NAO+, this low-pressure anomaly should very often hit western and northern Europe, with some possibility of snow and Arctic air arrivals.

In the case of changes in long-term forecasts, Mediterranean lows should appear above southern Europe in February again, yet.

The trend for February in forecasts is cooling so far for Europe and North America, both what should mean even a next split polar vortex situation – questionable is, how long should this possible NAO- / AO- phase lasting because cold eastern Canada – cold Europe pattern is not very usual in the winter and it´s possible mainly during destabilized polar vortex.

For the end of Winter 2021/2022, we would be preliminary carefully optimistic – winter forecast will be therefore updated a few times until 30. November on our homepage, yet.

The last updates of the Winter 2021/2022 forecast we published here in the last period – and it really appears, that the upcoming winter will be peaking in Europe, Asia, and North Africa around December 2021 and early January 2022 and in North America around February 2022 (the first link contains detailed described circulation conditions)https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-extreme-frosts-in-eurasia-in-december-in-north-america-in-february-early-canadian-stratospheric-warming-ne-pacific-blob-la-nina-qbo-and-shift-from-nao-to-nao-such-le/; https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-a-peak-near-nao-already-in-december-ne-pacific-warm-blob-nao-and-early-spring-in-february-north-america-oppositely-warm-start-cold-end-of-winter/https://mkweather.com/mkweather-special-forecast-for-the-next-3-seasons-cold-autumn-2021-warmer-winter-2021-2022-cold-spring-2021-for-europe-a-peak-of-winter-in-its-colder-first-half-north-america-with-extreme-cold-2021-20/https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-the-first-reliable-estimates-extreme-cold-blasts-from-canada-and-western-siberia-snow-in-western-europe-and-eastern-asia-la-nina-qbo-to-qbo-shift-sufficient-nao-ao/. You should look at ENSO outlook, too /https://mkweather.com/2022-2023-forecast-chances-for-el-nino//. It is also worth mentioning the Russian forecast for Siberia for Winter 2021/2022 /https://mkweather.com/russian-meteorologists-expect-extreme-winter-around-december-january-2021-22//.

Continental forecasts for Winter (in Southern Hemisphere Summer) 2021/2022 for Europe, North America, Asia, Africa, Australia and Oceania, South America and Antarctica we published here: https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-for-europe-early-extreme-arctic-and-siberian-blasts-and-blizzards-late-dry-and-very-warm-conditions/; https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-for-north-america-a-peak-of-winter-with-extreme-arctic-blasts-and-blizzards-in-february-2022/; https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-for-asia-early-extreme-arctic-and-siberian-blasts-and-blizzards-late-dry-and-warm-conditions/; https://mkweather.com/winter-and-summer-2021-2022-forecast-for-africa/; https://mkweather.com/summer-2021-2022-forecast-for-australia-and-oceania-stormy-colder-la-nina-pattern-above-the-continent/; https://mkweather.com/summer-2021-2022-forecast-for-south-america-stormy-north-hot-and-dry-south-cold-and-dry-pacific-coast/; https://mkweather.com/summer-2021-2022-forecast-for-antarctica//.

Continental forecasts for Autumn (in Southern Hemisphere Spring) 2021 are available here: https://mkweather.com/autumn-2021-forecast-for-europe-mostly-dry-and-frosty-autumn-be-prepared-for-early-severe-frosts/https://mkweather.com/autumn-2021-forecast-for-north-america-long-indian-summer-and-weaker-hurricane-season-such-as-expected/https://mkweather.com/autumn-2021-forecast-for-asia-strong-monsoon-for-s-se-e-asia-hot-and-dry-in-the-middle-east-late-siberian-cold-blasts-in-w-siberia-and-snow-calamities-in-e-siberia/https://mkweather.com/spring-autumn-forecast-for-africa-mostly-hot-and-dry-parts-of-sahel-equatorial-africa-stormy-and-south-africa-stormy-and-cold/https://mkweather.com/spring-2021-forecast-for-australia-and-oceania-under-la-nina-rules-cold-and-stormy-australia-warm-new-zealand-and-various-patterns-in-oceania/https://mkweather.com/spring-2021-forecast-for-south-america-floods-and-drought-in-many-regions/.

Illustration picture: Sources https://simonleewx.com/cfs_spv/, ECMWF, Mkweather
Illustration picture: Forecasted temperature anomalies during Winter 2021/2022. Basemap – ECMWF

Sources: Continental Mkweather forecasts – links in the article.

Source: https://simonleewx.com/cfsv2_monthly-anomalies/

Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_standard_rain?area=GLOB&base_time=202110010000&stats=tsum&valid_time=202112020000




Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html
Source: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/?fbclid=IwAR1zjClY2kOKntVQM3d5v8qOSUVbSrEFuumUBRyA7npSBa1hjs5nMCxMpqk#tabs=Pacific-Ocean
Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_nino_annual_plumes?base_time=202108010000&nino_area=NINO3-4
Source: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

Source: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

Source: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

Source: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

Source: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/?fbclid=IwAR1zjClY2kOKntVQM3d5v8qOSUVbSrEFuumUBRyA7npSBa1hjs5nMCxMpqk#tabs=Indian-Ocean

Source: https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52qz/mjo/chi/cfs.gif
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/monthly.aao.index.b79.current.ascii.table

Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_climagrams_teleconnection?base_time=202110010000&index_type=NAE

Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_tstorm_density_standard?base_time=202110010000

Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_standard_ssto?area=GLOB&base_time=202110010000&stats=tsum&valid_time=202112020000
Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_climagrams_teleconnection?base_time=202110010000&index_type=NAE
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Author: marekkucera
Writer about weather since 2007. The goal of this project is to inform a wide audience about extremes of weather, atmospheric circulation, and climate change around the world. If you like our work, you can support us on Patreon or donate.