Already in the last article, we informed about the last possible extremely strong coldwave in Europe, especially its eastern half, in early February 2022 (around 4.-6. February 2022): https://mkweather.com/the-last-strong-arctic-blast-should-hit-the-eastern-half-of-europe-around-4-6-february-2022-frosts-below-30c-for-finland-and-below-20c-for-baltic-countries-belarus-ukraine-or-roman/.
Now, we are however confirming long-term forecasts expecting early-spring conditions in the next weeks in February and March 2022 /https://mkweather.com/early-spring-should-be-peaking-around-13-27-february-2022-nao-in-march-2022-will-be-even-warmer/; https://mkweather.com/ecmwf-forecast-for-europe-until-14-march-2022-early-spring-for-the-british-islands-scandinavia-continental-europe-and-iberia// – the first extremely warm early-spring period namely will very probably come between 6.-14. February 2022, on the western shores of Europe even maybe earlier.
Possible temperatures during this period should reach up to +18°C in northern Western Europe or +17°C in Central Europe, while in Spain, summer days up to +27°C will be possible or in Italy and Balkan, around +23°C is predicted.
T2m anomalies in selected European regions should reach +10°C above long-term temperature averages during selected days.
Temporarily, days without morning frosts are possible in many lowlands, but shortly in basins, valleys, or even mountainous regions.
Snow melting, the possible first spring flowers or weather very good for outdoor activities is predicted and it appears, that the next period, between 13.-27. February 2022 (link above) will be even warmer, maybe in European mid-latitudes around +20°C and in the Mediterranean rarely close to +30°C.
March 2022 is predicted to be even warmer, with possible summer days (above +25°C) in European mid-latitudes and tropical days (above +30°C) in parts of the Mediterranean (link above).
It´s possible, that some shorter cold outbreaks will appear between 6.2. – 31.3. 2022, but it´s possible that Arctic blasts during this period will be thanks to NAO+ very limited.
NAO+ means a shifted Icelandic stormtrack anomalously northward and persistence of Azores high above Europe (except for Scandinavia, where will be stormtrack). It means very warm and dry Europe and stormy and warm Scandinavia.
Expected T2m anomalies during an expected early-spring period in Europe. Illustration picture: wxcharts.com