Summer 2022 forecast for Europe: Hot and dry South, stormy North, and busy continental parts
Summer 2022 is here already in 4 months and we are bringing the first continental updates of predicted weather patterns for Europe, North America, Asia, Africa (Winter+Summer 2022), Australia (Winter 2022), South America (Winter 2022), and Antarctica (Winter 2022).
This article will look at the forecast of Summer 2022 conditions in Europe.
A few main factors will be affecting conditions during an upcoming Summer 2022:
1. Weakening La Nina: During Summer 2022, a shift from La Nina to El Nino will be ongoing (Spring will be La Nina, yet, but Autumn probably El Nino already). The previous 2 La Nina Years should be associated with accumulated colder Earth conditions. Hopes for El Nino forecast mainly from Autumn 2022, should have in the second half of the growing season impact on hurricane season and its manifestations in a form of ex-hurricanes in Europe /https://mkweather.com/the-first-hurricane-season-2022-forecast-a-busy-season-amo-weaker-than-2020-2021-upcoming-el-nino//. La Nina is more fertile for Eastern, while El Nino for Western Europe /https://mkweather.com/el-nino-is-coming-autumn-2022-a-big-changes-in-circulation-patterns-worldwide//.
2. Mostly NAO- and AO-: After the year 2000, approximately 2/3 of winters were NAO+, while 2/3 summers NAO-. NAO-, with extreme heatwaves and severe storms in Europe (an alternating of slower Rossby waves with a high amplitude means a lot of heatwaves replacing by severe storms, mostly). It means, that hot air from western Sahara will be pushed above Europe after the peaks of NAO- phases on the front sides of low-latitude situated Icelandic cyclones coming from the Azores region above SW, S parts of Europe during the peaks of stronger NAO- phases. NAO- means relatively less high-pressure patterns above NW-N Europe, but hot and dry Mediterranean. Storms should be strong especially in continental parts of Europe and then on the main stormtrack in the north.
3. A shift of Hadley Cell northward: Despite NAO- pattern, the shift of Hadley Cell northward should push summer patterns to more northern regions, as usual – Azores high will be very strong and hot periods alternating with stormy days will be relatively long, with mostly very warm anomalies in the Mediterranean and continental Europe. Northern Europe on stormtrack should be regionally temperature neutral or only slightly warm. Rossby waves however should produce long pressure troughs with low-latitude situated lows and extreme heatwaves on their front sides in more peaks (NAO+ in continental Europe is in contrary dry and stable and hot air from NW Africa is shifting thanks to lack of low pressure above southern parts of the Atlantic in lower frequency).
4. Stronger start of Hurricane season: Despite weakening La Nina, and thanks to AMO+, is expected the next above-average Hurricane season 2022. It should mean more ex-tropical storms and ex-hurricanes at the end of Summer 2022 in Europe, especially in August 2022.
5. Extremely hot western Sahara: In the last years traditional pattern, linked with the shift of Hadley Cell or summer NAO- signals. There is a big stock of hot air for SW-S-SE and continental European heatwaves, temporarily too for British Islands and northern Europe.
6. A possible colder Arctic than usually: Arctic experiences partially thanks to La Nina with colder years and it´s possible that it won´t be a very warm season in Summer 2022, yet. SSTs of many Arctic seas are predicted to be below the temperature average in the summer and cold blasts should be in northern parts of Europe relatively frequent (in comparison with the previous decade).
7. Negative IOD: Correlates with NAO- and extreme drought along the coast of eastern Africa and very stormy SE Asia. The decline of the IOD index should be linked with NAO- in the European sector.
8. QBO in Westerly phase: Support for zonal airflow, despite mostly NAO- / AO- conditions.
9. AMO+: Warmer seas near North America with effect on stronger hurricane season and ex-tropical disturbance in late summer in Europe.
10. Awakening sun activity: should be linked with warmer global signals not only in Summer 2022, but in the next years.
11. SST: The warm Mediterranean Sea and mostly warm SSTs around Europe = good vacation and warm seas, only GW hole near Greenland and Iceland – should be partially limited thanks to still colder Arctic, but a still very important signal of melting Arctic.
Now, we should look at a forecast map for Summer 2022 for Europe and 6 main sectors, with similar regimes of weather:
A) HOT AND DRY (THE MEDITERRANEAN – DARK RED): Thanks to NAO-/AO-, Saharan blasts, the shift of Hadley Cell, and strong Azores highs with persisting drought and heatwaves. In Iberia and Italy possible temporary storms thanks to low-situated NAO–moving lows. Very warm Mediterranean Sea. Possible heatwaves up to +50°C during the peaking summer, problems with drought, wildfires, in agriculture and water supplies. Possible deadly heatwaves.
B) HOT (FRANCE – RED): South in Mediterranean regime (above), north with effects of pressure troughs above NW Europe, with possible severe storms. South very hot and dry, north with lower temperature anomaly. Possible heatwaves during the peaking of the season up to +45°C in the south, and here wildfires, problems in agriculture and water supplies. In the north, more floods and extreme storms are possible.
C) DRY (GERMANY – ORANGE): Mostly dry signal for Germany, especially in southern parts, north colder and more stormy, but still probably not so extreme such as the previous summer. Heatwaves in the southwest up to +42°C, northeast colder, with weaker heatwaves. Possible problems with drought and mostly short-term extreme storms on cold fronts. Regionally, however, short-term frontal storms should be surprising.
D) NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY WARM (BENELUX, ICELAND – WHITE): Eg. Benelux between hotter south and colder north and wetter northwest and drier Germany. Possible temperature shocks, severe storms, such as drier periods, very various weather. Around +38°C during the peak.
E) HOT AND STORMY (MOUNTAINOUS CONTINENTAL EUROPE AND BALKAN – VIOLET): Still very hot summer, but with strong convection in mountainous regions, with a result of severe storms with a possibility of flash floods. Possible very extreme summer with deadly heatwaves, droughts, floods, and storms. Above Balkan up to +45°C, in Central Europe up to +40°C possible. NAO- as a good predictor for heatwaves and severe storms both. Azores highs thanks to Hadley Cell shifted northward, but still low-situated NAO- lows from Genoa. Extremely hot air from Sahara will be coming more from the southwest, not from the south, such as in the previous summer.
F) STORMY (AND TEMPERATURE NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPERATURE AVERAGE) (NORTHERN EUROPE – GREEN): Maybe only England and southern Russia should be hotter and drier. Combination of NAO-, GW hole, colder Arctic, stronger Hurricane season 2022 should mean stormy summer for the region, with stormtrack just in these latitudes. Temporarily hot and dry period possible, but stormy patterns will be leading, with possible pressure troughs above NW Europe and Baltic region. Possible heatwaves up to +35°C. Often floods, severe storms, or cold fronts with severe winds. Later possible ex-tropical storms and ex-hurricanes and early cooldowns. Blocking anticyclonic patterns probably relatively weaker. Shorter Arctic coldwaves with surprising ground frosts or frosts possible.
Spring (Autumn) 2022 forecasts are available here: Europe /https://mkweather.com/spring-2022-forecast-for-europe-early-dry-late-stormy-very-warm//, North America /https://mkweather.com/spring-2022-forecast-for-north-america//, Asia /https://mkweather.com/spring-2022-forecast-for-asia//, Australia and Oceania /https://mkweather.com/autumn-2022-forecast-for-australia//, South America /https://mkweather.com/autumn-2022-forecast-for-south-america//, Africa /https://mkweather.com/spring-and-autumn-2022-forecast-for-africa-mostly-stormy-and-hot-south-colder//, and Antarctica /https://mkweather.com/autumn-2022-forecast-for-antarctica-snowy-with-severe-blizzards//.
Mkweather Summer 2022 forecast for Europe. Base map: https://mapchart.net/europe.html
NAOi. Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.tabl0e
AOi. Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table
AAOi. Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/monthly.aao.index.b79.current.ascii.table