Mkweather COVID crisis estimates for Winter season 2021/2022 (Europe): Warnings before a very bad evolution!

For a big public interest for our first estimates of COVID-19 development in early Autumn 2021 / we worked on an update on 17. September 2021, with an additional outlook for the next Winter season 2021/2022 in Europe.

Such we should notice on/in a map, table, and graphs below, any country in Europe between the period 1. July and 17. September in 2021 hasn´t reported a better situation and decreasing trend both.

There were a lot of combinations of countries, where summer and early autumn in 2021 were much worse than in the previous year, but the incidence is decreasing – mainly countries of western Europe, and there are some countries with fewer cases, but increasing trends, e.g. Poland.

What is however very disturbing, is many “black” countries, where the incidence in the last 10 weeks was much worse than in 2020 and the trend is increasing, in some cases very rapidly.

In countries, where was Summer 2021 much worse than in 2020, a very strong outbreak in case of severe cold blasts in Autumn and Winter 2021/2022 is possible, mainly in these, with increasing incidence already at the start of Autumn 2021.

The second half of September 2021 will bring severe coldwaves and even the first snowing /; and cold times are mainly in the eastern half of Europe forecasted for all October 2021 /;

A big win it won´t be for western Europe, with an Indian summer, too, because COVID-19 according to researches “loves” not only cold, but too very dry weather, and in some regions, a position in stormtrack of cyclones or extremely dry desert air.

Forecast for October, November, December, and the first half of January 2021 – 2022 is currently favorable for coldwaves – with mostly neutral NAO, with NAO- fluctuations, QBO will be still in its easterly phase, La Nina will be strengthening /;

Only during the second half of Winter 2021/2022 should finally develop in full power a Warm Blob anomaly above NE Pacific, with a result of NAO+ and warmer weather in Europe, with an estimated positive effect on COVID-19 incidence.

It means, that the peak of COVID-19 season in Winter 2021/2022 should arrive until January 2022, after a significant worsening of situation during a long-term, 4-month lasting colder period (half of September 2021 – half of January 2022), with many cold blasts, frosts, or snowfall events.

A significant worsening in large parts of Europe is estimated already during the upcoming September and October 2021 coldwaves, therefore stay warm and safe.

The next COVID-19 update we will bring already in several weeks.


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Author: marekkucera
Writer about weather since 2007. The goal of this project is to inform a wide audience about extremes of weather, atmospheric circulation, and climate change around the world. If you like our work, you can support us on Patreon or donate.