Temperature anomalies (in 850 hPa and 1000 hPa) both are in the first half of May 2021 (1.-14. 5. 2021) lower, than in April 2021, thanks to short heatwave around 10. May 2021, but some parts of Europe – mainly British Islands, Iceland, northern France, Benelux n western Germany and Switzerland are still very cold, withe temperature anomalies -2/-5°C in 850 hPa for 2 week period.
Even more interesting are outputs of 500 hPa geopotential anomaly and Precipitation Rate anomaly – in all northern half of Europe is evident strong negative geopotential (air pressure) anomaly and large parts of British Islands, continental Europe, southern Scandinavia and Baltic region showed strong above-average precipitation anomalies.
Mainly Mediterranean, Balkan and Black sea region were very warm, dry and anticyclonic.
While until 23. May is forecasted period of European monsoon for Europe, after 23. May, heatwaves are forecasted for large parts of the continent.
Mainly in southern and eastern Europe therefore, statistics will be changed into warmer and drier, while character of month May 2021 in northwestern Europe should stay below temperature average and stormy, in case, that heatwaves hit British Islands and northwestern coasts of the continent only shortly.
The first half-year 2021 should still report cold character of weather in many parts of Europe, such as was showed in /https://mkweather.com/a-big-european-circulation-anomaly-in-2021-totally-oppositely-such-as-in-the-world-and-showing-what-climate-change-should-bring-until-2100//.
The highest probability for cold year 2021 is in northwestern Europe, thanks to many anomalies such as melting Arctic, Global warming hole or weakening of Gulf Stream thanks to climate change, but too La nina, volcanic activity and low solar cycle activity.
May 2021 so far (1.-14.5. 2021)
April 2021
Source: Daily Climate Composites: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory
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