In the last series of articles, we brought the next extreme outputs of the GFS model, expecting anomalous coldwaves in late November and early December 2021 in Europe (and its wider region) /https://mkweather.com/hopes-for-a-very-rare-25c-in-november-central-europe-hits-extreme-frosts-and-snowfall-too/; https://mkweather.com/20c-in-france-still-possible-snow-is-forecasted-almost-everywhere-in-france-and-benelux/; https://mkweather.com/20c-and-heavy-snowfall-in-spain-are-still-possible-cold-weather-in-portugal-and-north-africa-too/; https://mkweather.com/extreme-frosts-20c-below-1000-masl-for-balkan-turkey-and-italy/; https://mkweather.com/30c-in-ukraine-belarus-and-moscow-region-russia-winter-in-2021-should-come-very-early/; https://mkweather.com/scandinavia-is-preparing-for-life-threatening-arctic-blasts-temperatures-up-to-35c-and-blizzards-in-the-baltic-region-are-forecasted/; https://mkweather.com/beast-from-the-east-for-british-islands-is-still-forecasted-snow-and-a-possibility-of-15-20c-frosts-in-scotland//.
About a predicted early arrival of Winter 2021/2022, we wrote already in July 2021 /https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-in-europe-should-start-very-early-nao-and-cold-airflow-are-predicted-2021-2022-winter//.
Extremely cold conditions will arrive after historically cold air masses above Greenland /https://mkweather.com/summit-camp-greenland-556c-possibly-never-has-been-so-extremely-cold-so-early-in-the-season// will flood Europe, soon, thanks to upcoming negative phases of Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations (AO- and NAO-) /https://mkweather.com/be-prepared-for-an-extremely-long-and-strong-coldwave-arctic-blasts-in-europe-between-10-november-15-december-are-expected/; https://mkweather.com/the-end-of-november-should-bring-a-very-low-nao-index-greenlandic-arctic-and-siberian-winter-should-come-very-early-peaks-between-20-11-20-12-2021//.
There is a possibility, that the NAO index will fall in the last November 2021 days up to -2, which is a very rare value, with a result of Mediterranean lows activity, blizzards in southern parts of mid-latitudes, and expansion of extremely, regionally maybe abnormally cold air masses from Greenland, Arctic, and Siberia above many parts of mid-latitudes and shortly even, to tropical climate zone.
Potentially historic outputs of GFS already appeared on the last GFS outputs for British Islands, with a possibility of -10°C frosts in London and -20°C in Scotland in late November 2021 /https://mkweather.com/historic-frosts-below-10c-in-london-20c-in-scotland-possible-all-uk-and-ireland-under-the-snow//.
In France and Central Europe, -25°C and severe blizzards are according to these outputs possible /https://mkweather.com/central-europe-winter-should-start-with-historic-30c-in-frost-valleys-blizzards-and-snow-calamity-very-possible/; https://mkweather.com/temperature-records-25c-and-up-to-1-meter-of-snow-in-france//.
Extremely cold air masses and snowfall are still predicted for Spain, Portugal, and Northern Africa.
In basins and valleys below 1000 MASL in Spain, temperatures up to -20°C are possible, while northern Portugal and North Africa should surprise with very strong frosts up to -10°C below 1000 MASL.
Extremely cold conditions brings Arctic air with temperatures in 850 hPa -2/-8°C above the region, including Northern Africa.
Severe frosts below -10°C are not excluded in many big Spanish cities situated in basins, including Madrid.
Frosts will be associated mainly with a presence of snow cover, which is forecasted mainly in northern, eastern, and central regions of Spain, some snow is however forecasted for NE Portugal or Atlas region, Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia.
Frosts and ground frosts are very probable even in the warmest part of Europe – in Andalusia and southernmost Portugal, some snow sleets should appear in Andalusia, too.
Frosts will start already early next week, around Tuesday, 23. November 2021 and will be lasting minimally until the end of outlook, 3. December 2021, therefore minimally 10-12 days, although, according to our long-term forecasts, probably until New Year 2022 /https://mkweather.com/winter-should-be-strengthening-until-new-year-2022-wider-european-region-estimates//.
Extreme winter conditions should bring in Europe worse virological situation, more heart attacks, worse conditions for many types of cancer, or risk of hypothermia, such as bad conditions and accidents on roads and highways, limitations for outdoor activities, or regional gas crisis.
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